Dangers Lurk In Global Bond Mkts

决策者一定非常自得。全球债券市场似乎已经接受了官方利率可以维持在极低的水平，以提振经济，同时又不会引发通货膨胀的教义。美国和欧洲的债券收益率在过去一个月里出现下跌，而2年期德国政府债券收益率在周二创出了1.04%的低点，尽管股市上涨，风险承受能力也在上升。市场总有一天会对所有这些因素作出反应，但是这一天不会很快到来。诚然，政府债券的买家面临巨大的诱惑。美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)和英国央行正在直接购买，降低了供应量过剩的担忧。欧洲央行也在提供为期12个月的无限制廉价融资安排，其中的大部分资金都通过银行建立流动性储备进入到债券市场中。与此同时，对经济复苏的疑虑依然存在，尤其是在旧车换现金等计划和重建库存的临时效应消失之后。这就让刺激政策和低利率更有可能延续下去。然而，紧张气氛仍在增加。短期债券收益率可能保持在低位：巴克莱(Barclays Capital)指出，它们只是在首次加息前六个月左右才开始真正上涨，而首次加息可能要等到2010年下半年了。但是，如果数据表明经济复苏不只是重建库存和一次性紧急刺激措施的结果，市场预期可能就会迅速改变。随着美国和英国政府逐步减少债券购买量，波动性可能会加大。政府小心维系的唤醒风险偏好和保持债券市场稳定之间的局面可能越来越难以把握。Richard Barley


Policy makers must be pretty pleased with themselves. Global bond markets seem to be accepting the mantra that official interest rates can be sustained at extremely low levels to boost the economy, without triggering inflation.U.S. and European bond yields have fallen over the past month, with two-year German government-bond yields hitting a low of about 1.04% Tuesday, even as equities climbed and risk appetite built. There will be a reckoning at some point -- but it could be a ways off.Admittedly, there are heavy inducements on offer for buyers of government bonds. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are buying directly, reducing the supply overhang. The European Central Bank is offering unlimited, cheap, 12-month refinancing facilities, and much of that funding is finding its way back into the bond market via banks building liquidity reserves.Meanwhile, doubts remain about an economic recovery, particularly once temporary effects from programs such as 'cash for clunkers' or inventory restocking wash through. That makes it more likely that stimulus policies and low rates will remain in place.Yet tension is still building. Short-dated yields may stay low: Barclays Capital notes they just start to rise in earnest about six months before the first rate increase, which may only come in the second half of 2010. But market expectations could move quickly if data start to depict a recovery that goes beyond inventory restocking and emergency one-time stimulus effects.Volatility could spike as the U.S. and U.K. authorities wind down their bond purchases. The fine line authorities are treading between awakening risk appetite and keeping the bond market onside could then become much harder to walk.Richard Barley