业绩爆雷预测 六大异常财务指标效果实测

应用决策树算法进行股票财务特征分析 决策树(Decision Tree)算法是是最经常使用的数据挖掘算法之一。决策树模型呈树形结构,在分类问题中,表示基于特征对实例进行分类的过程。它可以认为是 if-then 规则的集合,也可以认为是定义在特征空间与类空间上的条件概率分布。 一个例子,一个叫做 "二十个问题" 的游戏,游戏的规则很简单:参与游戏的一方在脑海中想某个事物,其他参与者向他提问,只允许提 20 个问题,问题的答案也只能用... 阅读详情

最近研究了一篇申万宏源证券的研报--《异常财务指标因子研究》。该研报提出六个基本面财务指标,不仅在一定程度上能识别上市公司财务造假的情况,更能有效预测未来盈余。本文按照该研报的描述尝试复现研究结果,验证异常财务因子的有效性。

 

 

异常财务指标单因子分析

 

  首先我们列出6个异常财务指标的选取原因:

 

 

  以及其计算公式:

 

 

 

  • 上述六个财务指标均采用季度数据构建,且均采用同比数据,能够消除季节性影响,为不同公司间可比,使用统一更新频率(5月1日、9月1日、11月1日更新新数据,不含年报数据)。

  • 在进一步研究之前,我们先对每个财务指标进行单因子检验,在全部A股中剔除金融行业股票,将股票按照各个异常因子值分为十组,各组内等权计算十分组表现,以及其IC、IR等指标,所有指标均经过市值行业中性化调整。

 

1.异常存货因子

 

  异常存货因子在样本期年化收益率的区分上较为明显,单调性也较好。IC均值为2.87%,IC_IR为0.53,多空组合年化收益率约为2.98%。

 

量化金融分析AQF(6):金融数据处理(tushare同时获取多只股价信息、累积收益、每日收益、return分布、股价相关性) 目录 一、获得金融数据 1.1 tushare获取单个对象数据 1.2 tushare pro 获取单个对象数据 1.3同时获取多只股价信息 二. 金融数据可视化 2.1 数据透视表 pivot : 三、金融初级计算 3.1 计算每日收益 3.3.1 将NaN值替换为0: 3.2 计算累积收益 四、分析return分布 4.1 直方图 4.2 QQ-Plots 五.... 阅读详情

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