鉴于金融市场的不确定性，投资者纷纷转向黄金作为避险资产。交易所买卖基金(ETF)如SPDR黄金股票交易基金(SPDR Gold Shares)成为了便捷的投资选择。这类基金直接反映了金价的变化，并必须持有实物黄金。过去一年中，这些基金持有的黄金价值已达到450亿美元。如果ETF的规模继续快速扩大，可能会对黄金市场产生实质性的供应压力。
你可以称之为“淘金潮”。鉴于金融体系如今步履蹒跚，投资者纷纷涌向黄金市场寻求避险。交易所买卖基金(ETF)使得投资黄金成为便捷的选择。SPDR黄金股票交易基金(SPDR Gold Shares)等交易所买卖基金直接反映了金价行情。这些基金必须有实物黄金作支持。它们的黄金储存量在一年之内增长了一倍，现在价值450亿美元。与股票等大的资产类别相比，这一规模或许不值一提。但黄金的稀缺性使这个市场保持了小规模。如果交易所买卖基金的规模继续快速增长，就有可能对供给有限的黄金开始产生切实的供应压力。Barclays Capital的分析师库柏(Suki Cooper)说，今年前7周，交易所买卖基金的黄金储存量增加了306吨。这个数字只比2008年全年增加的322吨黄金少一点儿。如果继续以这个速度增长下去的话，今年交易所买卖基金购入的黄金将超过珠宝业2008年2,120吨的黄金购买量，从而取代珠宝业成为最大的黄金需求来源。最近，在那些通常的不利因素丝毫未能阻止交易所买卖基金买进黄金的步伐。今年以来，美元兑欧元升值近9%，美元走强通常是黄金走软的一个前兆。然而黄金却涨了13%。大部分国家的超低通货膨胀率通常来说也不利于黄金走势。不过，随着各国政府努力使通货再膨胀，一些投资者认为经济会回归通货膨胀。其他人购买黄金是为了对冲金融体系崩溃的风险。无论怎样，散户投资者和对冲基金都在自己的投资组合里为黄金留下了位置。交易所买卖基金让这个任务变得更容易了。它们可以自由交易，其持有成本比持有实物黄金的成本要低。除非金融市场突然好转，否则投资者的担忧情绪应该会令黄金的吸引力持续不衰──尽管与其他资产不同的是，黄金并不产生收益。然而，交易所买卖基金并不总会支撑市场对黄金的需求。如果投资者认为游戏结束了，转而抛售黄金，交易所买卖基金将不得不平仓。正如它们现在给黄金市场带来了供应压力一样，当这股热潮消退的时候，它们也可能会让市场上遍地黄金。John Jannarone相关阅读黄金市场迎来“完美风暴” 2009-02-23今年可持有黄金 2009-01-272009年金价向何处去？ 2009-01-212009年金价或有大起伏 2009-01-02 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月23日14:56', 'GLD'));SPDR Gold Shares总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所成长板(ARCA)股票代码：GLD
Call it the GLD rush.As the financial system teeters, investors have fled to gold as a haven. Exchange-traded funds have made it easy. ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares -- ticker GLD -- are a direct bet on bullion prices. The trusts have to buy physical gold to match investment levels. Having doubled the gold in their vaults in a year, the stash is worth $45 billion.That's tiny in the context of big asset classes like stocks. But gold's scarcity keeps the market small. If ETFs continue to grow fast, they could start to create a real squeeze in gold, with its limited supply.Trusts have added 306 metric tons of gold to their vaults in the first seven weeks of the year, says Barclays Capital Analyst Suki Cooper. That's just short of the 322 tons added in all of 2008. If that rate were to continue, this year's ETF purchases would surpass the 2,120 tons procured for jewelry in 2008, replacing it as the top source of demand.Lately, gold ETFs haven't blinked in the face of typical obstacles. The dollar has gained nearly 9% against the euro this year, normally a cue for gold to weaken. But the metal has gained 13%. Ultralow inflation in most countries would also be negative for gold normally. But some investors are betting on a return to inflation as governments try reflating their economies. Others are hedging the risk of financial collapse.Either way, individual investors and hedge funds are making room for gold in their portfolios. ETFs make the task easier. They are freely tradable, and cheaper to own than it would cost for an individual to locate and secure the physical commodity. UBS reckons gold coins command a 10% convenience premium.Barring a sudden improvement in financial markets, investor fear should preserve gold's allure -- even though unlike other assets, it generates no yield.But ETFs won't always be a friend to gold, by underpinning physical demand. If, and when, investors decide the game is up, ETFs will have to liquidate holdings as people sell. Just as they are squeezing the market now, they could flood it when the frenzy ends.John Jannarone
Call it the GLD rush.As the financial system teeters, investors have fled to gold as a haven. Exchange-traded funds have made it easy. ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares -- ticker GLD -- are a direct bet on bullion prices. The trusts have to buy physical gold to match investment levels. Having doubled the gold in their vaults in a year, the stash is worth $45 billion.That's tiny in the context of big asset classes like stocks. But gold's scarcity keeps the market small. If ETFs continue to grow fast, they could start to create a real squeeze in gold, with its limited supply.Trusts have added 306 metric tons of gold to their vaults in the first seven weeks of the year, says Barclays Capital Analyst Suki Cooper. That's just short of the 322 tons added in all of 2008. If that rate were to continue, this year's ETF purchases would surpass the 2,120 tons procured for jewelry in 2008, replacing it as the top source of demand.Lately, gold ETFs haven't blinked in the face of typical obstacles. The dollar has gained nearly 9% against the euro this year, normally a cue for gold to weaken. But the metal has gained 13%. Ultralow inflation in most countries would also be negative for gold normally. But some investors are betting on a return to inflation as governments try reflating their economies. Others are hedging the risk of financial collapse.Either way, individual investors and hedge funds are making room for gold in their portfolios. ETFs make the task easier. They are freely tradable, and cheaper to own than it would cost for an individual to locate and secure the physical commodity. UBS reckons gold coins command a 10% convenience premium.Barring a sudden improvement in financial markets, investor fear should preserve gold's allure -- even though unlike other assets, it generates no yield.But ETFs won't always be a friend to gold, by underpinning physical demand. If, and when, investors decide the game is up, ETFs will have to liquidate holdings as people sell. Just as they are squeezing the market now, they could flood it when the frenzy ends.John Jannarone
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