本文探讨了股市是否已经触底的问题，指出试图精准预测底部往往导致投资者损失惨重。文章回顾了过去几年中市场多次被认为触底的情况，并分析了当前市场的复杂形势。一方面，许多股票价格低廉，为长期投资者提供了买入机会；另一方面，经济状况持续恶化，给股市带来压力。
市场触底了没？曾经的那个是不是底部？我们是否已经错过了底部？这些不可避免的股市问题再次嗡嗡响起，从广播电视，到交易部门，到新近失业的经纪商在那里思考未来的小酒吧，处处可闻。这种猜测很有趣，就如同在棒球比赛里，两个球队为入围季后赛而激战，或是选手接连几场比赛都打出安打一样有趣。不过，如果你是个担心自己可能“错过”了大好时机的投资者的话，那么你大可放轻松一点。多年来，我从未听说有人通过抄底赚了大钱，并且还能不把赚的钱再赔进去。相反，有太多的人因为试图预测市场时机（未果）而损失惨重。职业投资者（也就是真正聪明的投资者）对抄底的看法，就像职业扑克玩家对试图抓到同花顺的看法一样，他们认为这些都是愚蠢的。曾有一度，2007年8月看起来像是触底了：在美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)介入向银行伸出援手，向金融体系注入更多的资金后，据Factset的数据显示，全球市场在两个月中飙升了18%。一年前的上个周末当贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)垮台时，认为股市触底的想法扫除了很多悲观情绪，全球市场上扬13%。7月份，又有一些非常聪明的人认为市场触底了。11月份，很多人认为市场触底了。如果你想变得真的和哲学家似的，你可以争辩说，眼下的熊市实际上开始于2000年，这样的话，2002年10月也可以被称为是个假底部。过去的6个月里，投资者一直在思考两个强有力而又互相矛盾的事实。一方面，很多股票便宜得令人难以置信。对长线投资者来说，不久之后，事实可能会证明这个时期是个千载难逢的买进良机。另一方面，经济持续恶化。这无疑让股票承受了重压。一旦关系到股市，人们很难让自己的情绪保持在超然的状态。现在的情绪显然比两周之前要乐观一点儿了。或许这次的上涨确实间接地表明，秋季之前经济将开始企稳。（华尔街常常被认为领先经济6-9个月，不过这更多是一种经验之谈，而不是一个切实可靠的原则。）或许这只是又一个我所称的有效市场假说：市场上涨10%，所以情况肯定是正常的。不过在有人被最近的股市飙升迷失了心窍之前，我这里有一些忠告。记住引发股市上涨的消息是什么，是高级银行家和政府官员发表的安抚言论。我们以前难道没有听过这样的话吗？尤其值得一提的是，既然刺激法案已经获得了通过，政府官员鼓吹经济上是符合其既得利益的。还要注意：现在进行着大量的空头回补。3月初之前，投机者在市场进一步下滑上压上了巨额赌注。每次市场上扬，他们中就会有更多的人不得不赶紧买进股票保护自己。这进一步推高了市场。这种情况可以持续相当长的时间，而不会酝酿出新的牛市。这当然都是投资长期风险资本的好时机。正如我好几次指出的一样，市场上有很多真的很便宜的股票。从历史上看，每当发生这种情况时，事实常常证明这是长线投资的良机。不过，不能保证在我们罢手之前股票不会进一步下跌，事情总是如此。Brett Arends（编者按：本文作者Brett Arends是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家，他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应投资决定。）相关阅读穆迪：美国住房价格将于第四季度触底反弹 2009-02-07失业率飙升不见得经济已触底 2009-02-06
Are we there yet? Was that the bottom? Did we miss it?The inevitable questions about the stock market are buzzing again, from the airwaves to the dealing rooms to the bars where newly unemployed brokers are contemplating their futures.The speculation is interesting in the way a pennant race or a hitting streak is interesting. But if you are an investor who is worried that you may 'miss' a big move, you should relax.Over many years I have never heard of anyone who made and kept a fortune by catching the bottom of the market. Rather, too many have lost a fortune by trying and failing to time the market.Professional investors, the really smart ones, view trying to catch the bottom of a market the way professional poker players view drawing to an inside straight: Folly.August 2007 looked like the bottom for a time: After the Fed stepped in to help the banks and pumped more liquidity into the system, world markets, according to data from Factset, soared 18% in two months. And a year ago last weekend, when Bear Stearns imploded, that cleared a lot of pessimism. Global markets leapt 13%. Some very smart people thought the market hit bottom in July. Many thought it hit in November. If you want to get really philosophical, you could argue the current bear market actually began in 2000 in which case October 2002 could also be called a false bottom.For the past six months investors have been pondering two powerful, yet conflicting facts. On the one hand, many shares are incredibly cheap. For long-term investors this period may prove, in due course, to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. On the other hand, the economy has gone from bad to much, much worse. And that, of course, keeps shares under pressure.It is very hard to keep one's emotions aloof from the market. The mood is obviously a little brighter than it was two weeks ago. Perhaps this rally indeed signals that the economy will begin to steady by the Fall. (Wall Street is usually thought to lead the economy by six or nine months, although this is more a rule of thumb than a truly reliable principle.) Or perhaps it's just another case of what I've called efficient market hypnosis: 'The market's up 10%, things must be all right!'But before anyone gets too carried away by the latest surge, here are some caveats. Remember the news that sparked this rally: Reassuring remarks from top bankers and administration officials. Haven't we heard that one before?Administration officials, in particular, have a vested interest in talking up the economy now that the stimulus bill has passed. Note, too, that there is a lot of short covering going on right now. By early March speculators had placed huge bets on further falls in the stock market. Each time the market rises, more of them have to rush to buy shares to protect themselves. That drives the market still higher. It can go on for quite some time without being a new bull market.These are certainly good times to be investing long-term risk capital. As I pointed out several times, there are lots of really cheap stocks out there. Historically, whenever that has been the case it has usually proven to be a good time to make long-term investments. But, as always, there are no guarantees that things won't get even cheaper before we are done.Brett Arends
Are we there yet? Was that the bottom? Did we miss it?The inevitable questions about the stock market are buzzing again, from the airwaves to the dealing rooms to the bars where newly unemployed brokers are contemplating their futures.The speculation is interesting in the way a pennant race or a hitting streak is interesting. But if you are an investor who is worried that you may 'miss' a big move, you should relax.Over many years I have never heard of anyone who made and kept a fortune by catching the bottom of the market. Rather, too many have lost a fortune by trying and failing to time the market.Professional investors, the really smart ones, view trying to catch the bottom of a market the way professional poker players view drawing to an inside straight: Folly.August 2007 looked like the bottom for a time: After the Fed stepped in to help the banks and pumped more liquidity into the system, world markets, according to data from Factset, soared 18% in two months. And a year ago last weekend, when Bear Stearns imploded, that cleared a lot of pessimism. Global markets leapt 13%. Some very smart people thought the market hit bottom in July. Many thought it hit in November. If you want to get really philosophical, you could argue the current bear market actually began in 2000 in which case October 2002 could also be called a false bottom.For the past six months investors have been pondering two powerful, yet conflicting facts. On the one hand, many shares are incredibly cheap. For long-term investors this period may prove, in due course, to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. On the other hand, the economy has gone from bad to much, much worse. And that, of course, keeps shares under pressure.It is very hard to keep one's emotions aloof from the market. The mood is obviously a little brighter than it was two weeks ago. Perhaps this rally indeed signals that the economy will begin to steady by the Fall. (Wall Street is usually thought to lead the economy by six or nine months, although this is more a rule of thumb than a truly reliable principle.) Or perhaps it's just another case of what I've called efficient market hypnosis: 'The market's up 10%, things must be all right!'But before anyone gets too carried away by the latest surge, here are some caveats. Remember the news that sparked this rally: Reassuring remarks from top bankers and administration officials. Haven't we heard that one before?Administration officials, in particular, have a vested interest in talking up the economy now that the stimulus bill has passed. Note, too, that there is a lot of short covering going on right now. By early March speculators had placed huge bets on further falls in the stock market. Each time the market rises, more of them have to rush to buy shares to protect themselves. That drives the market still higher. It can go on for quite some time without being a new bull market.These are certainly good times to be investing long-term risk capital. As I pointed out several times, there are lots of really cheap stocks out there. Historically, whenever that has been the case it has usually proven to be a good time to make long-term investments. But, as always, there are no guarantees that things won't get even cheaper before we are done.Brett Arends
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