尽管全球经济衰退的影响尚未可知，铁矿石生产商仍在寻求从4月份开始的年度合同价格上涨最多5%。这一举动得到了近期中国市场需求回升的支持，但仅中国的增长是否足以提振整个铁矿石市场仍有待观察。
据了解铁矿石价格谈判情况的消息人士透露，虽然此次全球经济衰退的持续时间及影响深度尚不得而知，但铁矿石厂家正努力将起始时间为4月份的年度合同定价提高至多5%。此次谈判在美国佛罗里达州举行。仅仅在一个月前这些厂家还在期盼价格能保持平稳，但如今它们相信近期中国需求的增长或许意味着市场已触底反弹。它们还指出现货价格也较去年年底略有回升。Associated Press不过，没人能给市场中的任何回暖打保票。虽然中国的钢铁生产消费及出口都在全球位列第一，它的影响不容小视，但目前看来也唯有中国显示出了钢产量增长的迹象，这或许不足以给整个铁矿石市场带来推动。虽然铁矿石5%的价格涨幅远低于去年70%至85%的水平，但这仍会招来铁矿石最大的客户──全球钢铁行业的强烈反对。中国钢铁工业协会(China Iron & Steel Association)的一位官员说还没有作出任何退让。该协会正领导着与英国力拓股份有限公司(Rio Tinto Plc)澳大利亚必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)和巴西淡水河谷公司(Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce)这三家铁矿石生产巨头的价格谈判。中国钢铁工业协会未能团结起会员一致坚决反对铁矿石涨价，因为有一些钢铁企业把以合同价采购的铁矿石在现货市场上用高价出售。中国1月份钢产量较上年同期增长2.4%，是唯一一个产量有所增长的主要国家。世界钢铁协会(World Steel Association)提供的数据显示，全球1月份钢产量较上年锐减了24%。中国用钢量的增加有可能造成其他国家的供应紧张，并导致铁矿石价格上涨。淡水河谷的财务总监巴博萨(Fabio Barbosa)说，中国的铁矿石需求已经出现了增长，这是一个非常积极的变化；但现在预言市场将很快好转还为时过早。巴博萨拒绝透露近期的价格谈判情况。淡水河谷1月份向中国的发货量较去年12月增长了将近一倍，达到了3,000万短吨。必和必拓也说来自中国的铁矿石需求似乎出现了些许反弹。全球各地的钢铁企业都在削减产量关闭工厂遣散工人，因为汽车机具重型设备以及建筑等终端市场都出现了萎缩。在美国，粗钢产量已经降至每周约100万短吨，仅为正常产量的一半。欧洲和其他国家的情况也差不多，各地炼钢企业都在想方设法地支撑价格，目前钢材售价已较去年下滑了一半，甚至更多。这些钢铁企业储备现金控制成本的需求将会与铁矿石行业的涨价努力发生冲突。钢铁企业在谈判中稍处下风，不仅因为它们的生产离不开铁矿石，而且铁矿石生产领域企业数目有限，构不成激烈竞争。虽然安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)和美国钢铁公司(US Steel Corp.)等钢铁企业有一定铁矿石储备，但大多数企业手头都没有存货。此外，它们现在更加难以把原材料成本增长的影响转嫁出去，因为客户们的日子也都不好过。近年来，中国钢铁工业协会都在主导价格谈判，预计它最后会敲定一个全球钢铁企业都会遵守的基准价格。中国的钢铁行业有望迎来整合，这将最终使它在谈判中拥有更大的影响力。由于整合不可能在4月份之前完成，今年谈判应该不会受到影响。目前每公吨的铁矿石现货价格大约较去年80-90美元的合同价低了约10美元。铁矿石现货价格较去年年底时有所反弹，当时现价比合同价格低了30美元左右。去年9月起铁矿石需求就开始随经济走软而出现下滑，此后铁矿石厂家就大幅削减了产量。力拓和淡水河谷说已将产量减少了18%至25%。全球第二大海运贸易矿石厂家力拓表示在澳大利亚以外矿场的生产也因暴雨出现了中断。虽然铁矿石厂家今年基本上以整体的姿态参加谈判，但它们的心也不是那么齐。必和必拓不希望围绕着年度基准价格来进行铁矿石销售和定价，它更希望基于市场中的现货价格进行销售。而淡水河谷则希望能有一个更稳定的基准价格。Robert Guy Matthews相关阅读中铝投资力拓 铁矿石价格影响几何？ 2009-02-17钢铁公司欲大幅压低铁矿石协议价格 2009-01-26淡水河谷暗示可能接受铁矿石价格下调10% 2009-01-22中国搁置建立钢铁储备计划 2009-01-07中国钢铁企业将上调钢材价格 2008-12-26 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日10:19', 'RTP'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RTPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日10:19', 'BHP'));BHP Billiton Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日10:19', 'RIO'));淡水河谷公司英文名称：Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (ADS)总部地点：巴西(Brazil)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日10:19', 'BBL'));Bhp Billiton Plc (ads)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BBLdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日10:19', 'BHP.AU'));Bhp Billiton Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日10:19', 'RIO.AU'));Rio Tinto Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日10:19', 'BLT.LN'));BHP Billiton PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：BLTdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日10:19', 'RIO.LN'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月25日10:19', 'VALE5.BR'));淡水河谷公司英文名称：Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce总部地点：巴西(Brazil)上市地点：圣保罗股票代码：VALE5
In spite of concerns about the length and depth of the global recession, iron ore miners are pushing for as much as a 5% increase in the annual contract price beginning in April, according to sources familiar with the negotiations taking place in Florida.The miners, which only a month ago were hoping to keep prices flat, believe a recent uptick in demand from China may signal that the market has bottomed out. They also note that spot prices have inched up since late last year.But any increase is by no means assured. At this point, China, though a huge factor as the world's largest steel producer, consumer and exporter, is the only country showing increased steel production and it may not be enough to buoy the entire market for iron ore.A price increase of 5%, though well below the 70% to 85% levels of last year, will be strongly opposed by the biggest consumer of iron ore -- the global steel industry. 'We are not conceding anything yet,' said an official with the China Iron & Steel Association, which is leading negotiations with the world's top three iron ore producers, London-based Rio Tinto PLC, Melbourne-based BHP Billiton Ltd., and Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce.The Chinese organization has been unable to rally its steel members to reject iron ore price increases decisively because some of the steelmakers re-sell their contracted iron ore on the spot market for higher prices.China was the only major country last month to record an increase in steel production, up 2.4% from January 2008. According to the World Steel Association, steel production by all countries fell 24% in January from the year-earlier month. Increased steel usage in China tends to tighten supply in other countries and provide a lift in pricing.Fabio Barbosa, Vale's finance director, said that it has seen an uptick in iron ore demand in China. 'This is very positive development. It is still too early to say that a turnaround is near,' said Mr. Barbosa, who declined to talk about current negotiations. Vale shipped nearly twice as much iron ore, 30 million short tons, to China in January compared to December.BHP has also noted that there seems to be a slight recovery in iron ore demand in China.Steelmakers around the world are cutting production, shutting plants and laying off workers, as their own end markets -- autos, appliance, heavy equipment and construction -- contract. In the U.S., raw steel production has fallen to about 1 million short tons a week, about half the amount of its normal weekly production. The story is much the same in Europe and elsewhere as steelmakers seek to firm up prices, which have fallen by 50% or more since last year.Their need to conserve cash and control costs will conflict with the mining industry's effort to raise prices. Steelmakers are at a slight disadvantage in the talks because they can't make steel without iron ore and there aren't enough iron ore producers to pit against each other in price.While some steelmakers, including ArcelorMittal and U.S. Steel Corp., have some iron ore reserves, most steelmakers don't. They also may have a harder time passing on their own higher raw material costs because their customers are struggling.As in recent years, the Chinese steel industry is leading negotiations and expected to set a benchmark that steelmakers around the world will follow. China's steel industry is expected to consolidate, which could eventually give it more leverage in iron ore contract talks. Those moves aren't expected to impact this year's talks, which aren't likely to conclude before April.The spot market price for iron ore is about $10 below last year's contract price of $80-$90 a metric ton. Spot prices have recovered from late last year, when iron ore was selling as much as $30 below contract prices.Iron ore producers have drastically cut production since September when demand fell along with the strength of the economy. Rio Tinto and Vale said that they had cut production of iron ore between 18% and 25%. Rio Tinto, the world's second largest provider of seaborne-traded iron ore, said that some of its production out of Australia has also been halted because of heavy rain.While the miners are generally negotiating as a unit this year, their resolve to do so may not last. BHP wants to move the selling and pricing of iron ore away from establishing a yearly benchmark, preferring to sell based on market spot prices. Vale, on the other hand, wants a more stable benchmark price.Robert Guy Matthews
In spite of concerns about the length and depth of the global recession, iron ore miners are pushing for as much as a 5% increase in the annual contract price beginning in April, according to sources familiar with the negotiations taking place in Florida.The miners, which only a month ago were hoping to keep prices flat, believe a recent uptick in demand from China may signal that the market has bottomed out. They also note that spot prices have inched up since late last year.But any increase is by no means assured. At this point, China, though a huge factor as the world's largest steel producer, consumer and exporter, is the only country showing increased steel production and it may not be enough to buoy the entire market for iron ore.A price increase of 5%, though well below the 70% to 85% levels of last year, will be strongly opposed by the biggest consumer of iron ore -- the global steel industry. 'We are not conceding anything yet,' said an official with the China Iron & Steel Association, which is leading negotiations with the world's top three iron ore producers, London-based Rio Tinto PLC, Melbourne-based BHP Billiton Ltd., and Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce.The Chinese organization has been unable to rally its steel members to reject iron ore price increases decisively because some of the steelmakers re-sell their contracted iron ore on the spot market for higher prices.China was the only major country last month to record an increase in steel production, up 2.4% from January 2008. According to the World Steel Association, steel production by all countries fell 24% in January from the year-earlier month. Increased steel usage in China tends to tighten supply in other countries and provide a lift in pricing.Fabio Barbosa, Vale's finance director, said that it has seen an uptick in iron ore demand in China. 'This is very positive development. It is still too early to say that a turnaround is near,' said Mr. Barbosa, who declined to talk about current negotiations. Vale shipped nearly twice as much iron ore, 30 million short tons, to China in January compared to December.BHP has also noted that there seems to be a slight recovery in iron ore demand in China.Steelmakers around the world are cutting production, shutting plants and laying off workers, as their own end markets -- autos, appliance, heavy equipment and construction -- contract. In the U.S., raw steel production has fallen to about 1 million short tons a week, about half the amount of its normal weekly production. The story is much the same in Europe and elsewhere as steelmakers seek to firm up prices, which have fallen by 50% or more since last year.Their need to conserve cash and control costs will conflict with the mining industry's effort to raise prices. Steelmakers are at a slight disadvantage in the talks because they can't make steel without iron ore and there aren't enough iron ore producers to pit against each other in price.While some steelmakers, including ArcelorMittal and U.S. Steel Corp., have some iron ore reserves, most steelmakers don't. They also may have a harder time passing on their own higher raw material costs because their customers are struggling.As in recent years, the Chinese steel industry is leading negotiations and expected to set a benchmark that steelmakers around the world will follow. China's steel industry is expected to consolidate, which could eventually give it more leverage in iron ore contract talks. Those moves aren't expected to impact this year's talks, which aren't likely to conclude before April.The spot market price for iron ore is about $10 below last year's contract price of $80-$90 a metric ton. Spot prices have recovered from late last year, when iron ore was selling as much as $30 below contract prices.Iron ore producers have drastically cut production since September when demand fell along with the strength of the economy. Rio Tinto and Vale said that they had cut production of iron ore between 18% and 25%. Rio Tinto, the world's second largest provider of seaborne-traded iron ore, said that some of its production out of Australia has also been halted because of heavy rain.While the miners are generally negotiating as a unit this year, their resolve to do so may not last. BHP wants to move the selling and pricing of iron ore away from establishing a yearly benchmark, preferring to sell based on market spot prices. Vale, on the other hand, wants a more stable benchmark price.Robert Guy Matthews
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