New Currency Trade: Gold Vs All Else

投资者已经习惯于把投资从高风险资产转向黄金说成是一种新的外汇交易。全球各地的投资者都对使世界银行业重回正轨这项艰巨的任务忧心忡忡，纷纷转向美国国债和美元这类安全的避风港。不过，从某种程度上讲，美元的成功就如同海市蜃楼，只是因为世界其他主要货币走软才显得它很强劲。近几个月来，美元（连同黄金）走强，这可是一件怪事，也说明了全球值得投资的领域多么稀缺。不过BlueAlpha Investment Advisory Limited驻伦敦的经理佩什(Sean Peche)说，由于各国都试图让自己的货币相对其他各种货币贬值，黄金投资的势头有所升温。这也解释了美元最近为何会走强，原因之一就是投资者的避险情绪。今年以来，美元兑欧元累计升值9.5%，兑英镑升值2.3%；以美元计价的黄金价格上涨9.4%。周二黄金价格涨25.50美元，收于每盎司967美元，为2008年7月17日以来的最高。Lewis Capital Partners的基金经理刘易斯(Lance Lewis)说，黄金在告诉我们，美元的涨势不会持续下去。他还说，其他国家有更强的能力为自己所需提供资金支持。他指的是中国和其他几个债权国，而不是美国这个债务国。对那些寻求安全资产的人来说，美国国债依然炙手可热，不过这种局面也蒙上了阴影。上周有报导援引中国银监会培训中心主任罗平的话说，除持有美国国债之外，几乎没有其他真正的选择。不过半官方的中新网晚些时候报导称，罗平说买美国国债是中国的选择之一，但并非唯一的选择。尽管如此，据周二公布的美国财政部国际资本流动数据(Treasury International Capital)，12月份外国人共买进244亿美元美国国债，11月份则出售了376亿美元。中国持有的美国国债增加140亿美元以上，至6,962亿美元，其中有近110亿美元是短期国债。David Gaffen相关阅读今年可持有黄金 2009-01-272009年金价向何处去？ 2009-01-212009年金价或有大起伏 2009-01-02


Investors have taken to terming the flight from risky assets into gold a new currency trade. The ongoing concern about the enormous task of getting the world's banks on track - bedeviling investors across the globe - has produced a safe-haven trade into the likes of Treasurys and the dollar. However, the dollar's success is, in some ways, a mirage, improving only because other major world currencies have been dreadful.The dollar has strengthened in the last couple of months, along with gold, which is an odd occurrence, and speaks to the dearth of worthy investments around the world. But the shift to gold has picked up as 'everyone is trying to devalue their own currency against everyone else,' says Sean Peche, manager at BlueAlpha Investment Advisory Limited in London.That explains the dollar's strength of late, one founded on risk aversion. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has gained 9.5% against the euro and 2.3% against the pound, while gold, in dollar terms, is up 9.4%. The yellow metal closed up $25.50 at $967 an ounce Tuesday, the highest since July 17, 2008. 'Gold is telling you the dollar's rally is not going to continue,' says Lance Lewis, fund manager at Lewis Capital Partners.He adds that 'other countries have a better ability to finance what they need,' in reference to China and a few others that are creditor nations (others owe them money), rather than the U.S., a debtor nation.U.S. Treasurys have remained a favored purchase for those seeking safe assets, but even that picture is clouded. Luo Ping, director general of the training center of the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission, was quoted last week as saying there are few real alternatives to holding U.S. Treasury securities - but the semi-official China News Service later said Luo said buying U.S. debt is one of China's options, but not the sole option.Still, according to Treasury International Capital figures released Tuesday, foreigners purchased $24.4 billion of Treasurys in December, following sales of $37.6 billion in November. China's holdings rose by more than $14 billion to $696.2 billion, of which nearly $11 billion were purchases of short-term obligations.David Gaffen