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China market turmoil revives memory of previous carnage
中国股汇动荡让投资者想起上一次大跌

Turmoil has returned to Chinese financial markets after more than two years of relative calm,
reviving memories of 2015-16, when an equity market rout combined with currency depreciation
captured the attention of global investors and sparked worries about systemic risk.
在经历了两年多的相对平静后，中国金融市场再度出现动荡，让人回想起 2015-2016 年的情景。
当时，股市暴跌加上人民币贬值引起了全球投资者的关注，引发了对系统性风险的担忧。

Market declines this year have not yet reached the magnitude of 2015, when the Shanghai Composite
index fell by more than 45 per cent in just over two months between June and August, while the
renminbi depreciated by 10 per cent between August 2015 and the end of 2016.
今年股市的跌幅尚未达到 2015 年的水平。当年 6 月到 8 月短短两个多月的时间里，上证综指
(Shanghai Composite index)下跌逾45%，而在2015年8月到2016年底期间，人民币贬值了10%。

The moves prompted heavy-handed intervention in both markets. While the use of foreign exchange
reserves to support the renminbi is generally viewed as a successful — if costly — effort to
stabilise market expectations, the stock market bailout is widely seen as a failure.
这样的走势促使当局对这两个市场进行了严厉的干预。尽管利用外汇储备来支撑人民币被普遍
视为稳定市场预期的成功举措（就是代价太大），但外界普遍认为，对股市的救助是一次失败
的尝试。

In August 2015, an internal assessment of the effort concluded that the so-called“national team”of
state-backed investors should abandon their bailout efforts.
2015 年 8 月，一份内部评估报告认定，由国家支持的投资者组成的所谓“国家队”应该放弃
其救市努力。

“It’s quite natural to think about 2015 right now, but the government should have learnt some
lessons from that episode, which wasn’t pleasant,” said Shuang Ding, China economist at Standard
Chartered in Hong Kong.

“现在想到 2015 年是很自然的事情，但政府应该从那段并不愉快的经历中吸取了一些教训，”
渣打银行(Standard Chartered)驻香港的中国经济学家丁爽表示。

“ Back then the government panicked even earlier than the market. They took intervened
excessively, creating unrealistic expectations among investors. This time they’ve generally stayed on
the sidelines and to allow market the market to react to slowing economic growth and the prospect of
a trade war.”
“当时，政府甚至比市场更早地陷入恐慌。他们过度干预，在投资者中制造了不切实际的预期。
这一次，他们基本上作壁上观，让市场对经济增长放缓和贸易战前景做出反应。”

In some ways, Chinese policymakers are in a stronger position to weather the recent storm than they
were in 2015-16.
在某些方面，中国政策制定者经受近期风暴的能力比 2015-2016 年期间更强了。

First, equity valuations are more modest. Though Shanghai stocks rose steadily after their January
2016 trough, so-called“Ashares”were still only valued at 17 times trailing-twelve-month earnings
when the Shanghai Composite closed at a two-year high in late January this year. This was well
below the ratio of 23 at the peak of the bubble in June 2015, according to data from Wind Info.
首先，股票估值更温和。尽管上海股市在 2016 年 1 月触底后稳步上涨，但当上证综指在今年
1 月底收于两年高点时，A 股滚动市盈率仅为 17 倍。根据万得资讯(Wind Information)的数据，
这远远低于 2015 年 6 月泡沫高峰时期的 23 倍。

Shanghai’s P/E ratio had fallen to 12 by Thursday’s close, below its level of 13 when the Shanghai
Composite bottomed out in January 2016, leading some analysts to detect a buying opportunity.
周四收盘时，上证综指的市盈率已跌至 12 倍，低于 2016 年 1 月上证综指触底时的 13 倍，导
致部分分析师认为这是个买入机会。

“This kind of decline has a bit of an irrational element,” said Liu Longpeng, chief markets
strategist at Guotai Junan Securities in Shenzhen. “Valuations are at historical low points. If people
set their sights towards the longer term, there is real investment value at this level.”
“这样的下跌有一些非理性成分，”国泰君安首席市场分析师林隆鹏表示。“估值处于历史低
点。如果人们把眼光放长远一点，目前的水平真的有投资价值。”

On the renminbi, there is so far little sign of rampant capital flight of the type that occurred in
2015-16, which prompted authorities to crack down on foreign dealmaking and other outflow
channels.
就人民币而言，迄今几乎没有看到像 2015-2016 年那样的大规模资本外逃迹象。当年资本大举
外逃促使当局严厉打击海外并购和其他资本外流渠道。

Instead, the recent declines appear largely driven by pessimism about a slowing economy on top of
worries about the impact of a trade war on China’s trade surplus.
相反，最近的下跌似乎主要是由于对经济放缓的悲观情绪，以及担忧贸易战给中国贸易顺差造
成的影响。

Adding to these pressures are Federal Reserve rate rises, which are occurring just as monetary easing
is pushing renminbi interest rates down. The result is a narrowing gap between dollar and renminbi
interest rates, following years in which higher yields available on Chinese assets provided a baseline
of support for the renminbi.
在中国放松货币政策推低人民币借贷利率之际，美联储(Federal Reserve)加息加剧了这些压力。
其结果是，美元与人民币利率之差逐步缩小。而多年来，是中国资产的较高收益率为人民币提
供了底部支撑。

Traders saw signs last week when the People’s Bank of China intervened modestly to curb the
renminbi’s decline, but the PBoC now has less ammunition for large-scale intervention. Dollar
selling in 2015-16 reduced the stock pile from its all-time high of $4tn in mid-2016 to $3.12tn at the
end of May. June forex reserves data are expected on Saturday.
当中国人民银行(PBoC)上周温和干预汇市以遏制人民币下跌时，交易员看到了一些迹象。但中
国央行现在进行大规模干预的能力有所下降。2015-2016 年卖出美元使中国的外汇储备从 2016
年中期的历史高点 4 万亿美元降至今年 5 月底的 3.11 万亿美元。预计 6 月外汇储备数据将于
周六公布。

“If there is more pressure on the exchange rate, I would not rule out market intervention through
selling US dollars, but they definitely don’t want FX reserves to drop below $3tn,” said Mr Ding.
“如果汇率面临更大压力，我不会排除（中国央行）通过卖出美元干预市场的可能性，但他们
肯定不希望外汇储备降至 3 万亿美元之下，”丁爽说。

There is also less space to tighten capital controls further, especially because doing so would
jeopardise policymakers’ efforts to draw more foreign investment into its domestic capital markets.
此外，中国政府收紧资本管制的空间也在缩小，尤其是这样做会危及政策制定者吸引更多外国
投资进入国内资本市场的努力。
That campaign has received a boost from moves to include Chinese stocks and bonds in global
indices, but any move to restrict outward flows would be seen as an embarrassing backslide.
中国股票和债券被纳入全球指数提振了这一努力，但任何限制资本外流的举措都会被视为令人
难堪的倒退。

The wild card for both China’s stock market and currency is the property market. Many worry it is
now in an even more severe bubble than in 2015. An index of Shanghai-listed property shares have
fallen 15 per cent over the past two weeks compared to a 5.4 per cent drop in the Shanghai
Composite.
中国股市和人民币面临的一大不确定因素是房地产市场。许多人担心现在的楼市泡沫比 2015
年更严重。过去两周，上证房地产指数下跌了 15%，而上证综指同期跌幅仅为 5.4%。

News that China Development Bank, the country’s main policy lender, was pulling back from a
subsidy programme for homebuyers that has spurred breakneck sales and price growth in smaller
cities since 2016 sparked the recent decline of developer shares, highlighting the market’s nervous
mood.
中国主要政策性银行国家开发银行(China Development Bank)取消了一项针对购房者的补贴计
划的消息，引发了近期地产股下跌，突显出市场的紧张情绪。自 2016 年以来，该计划刺激了
中国小型城市的房地产销售和价格上涨。

While few predict an outright collapse of the property market, even a 10 per cent price decline would
ripple through China’s economy, where property underpins manufacturing demand, debt collateral,
and local government budgets.
虽然很少有人预测房地产市场会彻底崩盘，但即便房价下跌 10%，中国经济也会受到影响。因
为，在中国，房地产是制造业需求、债务抵押品和地方政府预算的支撑。

“The property bubble is very palpable. Across third- and fourth-tier cities, prices have doubled
since the beginning of 2016,” said Hao Hong, head of research at Bocom International in Hong
Kong.
“房地产泡沫是显而易见的。在三、四线城市，房价自 2016 年初以来已经翻了一番，”交银
国际(Bocom International)驻香港的研究主管洪灏说。

“Now we’re probably in a much larger bubble than in 2015, which restrains the government’s
policy choices. Monetary policy cannot be too relaxed because it will inflate the bubble further.”
“我们现在可能正处于一个比 2015 年更大的泡沫中，这限制了政府的政策选择。货币政策不
能太宽松，因为它将进一步吹大泡沫。”

转载于:https://www.cnblogs.com/wanghui626/p/9581872.html