或许银行业改革尚未停顿。二十国集团(G20)财长央行行长和监管官员上周末的宣言预示着新规则即将出台──包括提高高质量资金的水平新的杠杆率要求以及新的流动性规则。在这种情况下，欧洲银行类股周一继续飙升更是出乎人们意料。Reuters美国财长盖特纳与法国财长拉加德细节决定成败。而诸多细节都依然是雾里看花。举例来说，巴塞尔委员会(Basel Committee)已经强化了第一级资本的定义，但尚未提高第一级资本最低水平（目前为4%），也没有提高第一级资本中最低50%的普通股比例要求。同样，采用杠杆率要求的承诺也只是泛泛而谈。对于杠杆如何定义或衡量尚未形成任何一致意见。知悉委员会想法的知情人士说，决策者们的计划是，这一比率不会是硬性的监管工具，而是作为后备措施，防止银行在风险很大的监管资本制度上玩花样。对于混合债没有达成协议，混合债目前最高可相当于银行第一级资本的15%。新的反周期规则尚待制定，这类规则旨在阻止银行因密集进入同类交易而制造系统性风险。但总体方向似乎更加清晰，尤其是考虑到美国财长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)对改革的支持。或许乐观的投资者是在押注各国将无法就新规达成一致，或是由于担心资产回报下降会减少放贷，致使政治承诺弱化。此外，投资者希望改革会被推到将来进行，同时各国央行继续为银行筹资创造良好的环境。Simon Nixon相关阅读G20就限制银行发放奖金达成原则一致 2009-09-07G20：法国央行行长：银行业薪酬需要透明的国际化制度来约束 2009-09-05金砖四国：G20成员国应继续经济刺激政策 2009-09-05
Perhaps banking reform hasn't stalled after all. This weekend's announcements by G-20 finance ministers, central bankers and regulators suggest new rules are on their way -- including higher levels of better-quality capital, a new leverage ratio and new liquidity rules. That makes the continued surge in European bank stocks Monday all the more surprising.The devil will be in the detail. And a lot of detail remains hazy. For example, the Basel Committee has tightened its definition of Tier 1 capital. But it hasn't yet increased the minimum level of Tier 1 capital, currently 4%, or the 50% minimum that must be common equity.Similarly, the commitment to introduce a leverage ratio is sketchy. There isn't yet any agreement on how leverage should be defined or measured. And policy makers are planning that the ratio won't be a hard regulatory tool but a backstop measure to stop banks from gaming the risk-weighted regulatory capital regime, according to someone familiar with the committee's thinking.There is no agreement on hybrid debt, which can currently form as much as 15% of a bank's Tier 1. New countercyclical rules designed to stop banks from creating systemic risks by crowding into similar trades remain to be worked out.But the direction seems clearer, particularly given Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's backing for reform. Perhaps bullish investors are betting countries will fail to agree on rules or the political commitment will weaken from fear lower returns on equity could reduce lending.Alternatively, they are hoping reforms will be pushed into the future and, meantime, central banks will keep conditions sweet for banks to mint money.Simon Nixon
Perhaps banking reform hasn't stalled after all. This weekend's announcements by G-20 finance ministers, central bankers and regulators suggest new rules are on their way -- including higher levels of better-quality capital, a new leverage ratio and new liquidity rules. That makes the continued surge in European bank stocks Monday all the more surprising.The devil will be in the detail. And a lot of detail remains hazy. For example, the Basel Committee has tightened its definition of Tier 1 capital. But it hasn't yet increased the minimum level of Tier 1 capital, currently 4%, or the 50% minimum that must be common equity.Similarly, the commitment to introduce a leverage ratio is sketchy. There isn't yet any agreement on how leverage should be defined or measured. And policy makers are planning that the ratio won't be a hard regulatory tool but a backstop measure to stop banks from gaming the risk-weighted regulatory capital regime, according to someone familiar with the committee's thinking.There is no agreement on hybrid debt, which can currently form as much as 15% of a bank's Tier 1. New countercyclical rules designed to stop banks from creating systemic risks by crowding into similar trades remain to be worked out.But the direction seems clearer, particularly given Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's backing for reform. Perhaps bullish investors are betting countries will fail to agree on rules or the political commitment will weaken from fear lower returns on equity could reduce lending.Alternatively, they are hoping reforms will be pushed into the future and, meantime, central banks will keep conditions sweet for banks to mint money.Simon Nixon
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