近期大宗商品价格大幅上涨引发关注，原油、铜等价格涨幅显著。分析指出，此轮上涨或因全球经济复苏信号及美元贬值预期。然而，也有观点认为全球需求疲软，难以支撑持续上涨。大宗商品价格波动对经济复苏带来不确定性。
大宗商品价格近期的上扬已引起了各方广泛关注，并引发人们热议价格还会涨到多高。但这类商品的一些价格变动，特别是油价变动，似乎与供大于求的市场基本面明显存在矛盾。自今年初以来，油价上涨了近50%，铜价上涨了60%以上，金价上涨了10%以上，最近又在试探每盎司1,000美元关口。甚至食品价格也出现了10%至14%的上涨。大宗商品价格的上涨究竟是缘于全球经济的复苏，还是仅仅因为此前可能难以持续的过低价格？隐藏在种种议论背后的是人们对通货膨胀刚刚萌生出的担忧。长期美国国债收益率虽然过去几天已经有所下降，但仍高于一个月前的水平，一些人将国债收益率上扬解释为债券市场又开始担心通货膨胀了，尽管所有证据都表明情况正好相反。大宗商品价格的持续上涨肯定会加强那些担心未来出现高通货膨胀的人的立场。研究公司High Frequency Economics的首席经济学家温伯格(Carl Weinberg)认为，从经济基本面看，大宗商品价格没有理由呈现长期上涨态势。在他看来，由于大宗商品的价格一度跌得不成样子，所以近期才会有所反弹。温伯格说，全球需求依然太弱，至少目前还无法支撑大宗商品价格的持续上扬。大宗商品出现牛市有赖于两个条件。其一是，美元不断贬值将推动以美元计价的大宗商品不断涨价。市场基本面决定了，如果美元走弱，那么购买同样多的大豆将需要更多美元。其二是，中国经济再度强劲增长。这将使中国工业对原材料的需求大增。但温伯格反驳说，即使这个理由能站得住脚(他似乎对此有所怀疑)，在世界各国对原材料的需求普遍低迷之际，中国的需求增加也不会对大局产生太大影响。温伯格承认，由于大宗商品价格正从超低水平上“整固”，因此在这一因素消失市场基本面重新占据主导地位之前，市场价格还是可能有所上涨的。对那些认为经济复苏推动了大宗商品价格上涨的人来说，他们面临的一大麻烦是，大宗商品价格上扬会抑制经济复苏。美国的汽油价格已上涨了50%以上，这已经在削弱消费者的支出能力，这可不是件好事。Dave Kansas（“市场脉动”深入华尔街内部，寻找影响市场的新闻，分析引起关注的走势和数据。）相关阅读中国大宗商品进口增长的背后 2009-05-13中国在大宗商品进口问题上面临两难 2009-04-27大宗商品开出“香蕉球” 2009-04-24中国3月份贸易数据显示出脆弱的复苏迹象 2009-04-11
The recent spike in commodity prices has grabbed headlines and sparked wide-ranging debate about just how much higher prices can go. Some of the price moves, notably in the oil markets, seem to defy the underlying fundamentals of plentiful supply and rather anemic demand.Since the start of the year, oil prices are up nearly 50%, copper is up more than 60%, and gold has gained more than 10% and recently flirted once again with $1,000 an ounce. Even foodstuffs have recorded low double-digit gains.Is the rise in commodity prices stemming from the whiff of global economic recovery or simply a rebound from absurdly low levels which may not even be sustainable?Underlying the debate is the nascent concern about inflation. Longer-term Treasury yields have retreated in the past few days, but they remain higher than a month ago, which some read as a revival of inflation fear in the bond markets, despite all evidence to the contrary. A sustained rise in commodity prices would certainly buttress the so-called bond vigilantes who fear future inflation.Carl Weinberg, Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics, a Valhalla, N.Y., research firm, believes the rise in commodities is not justified in the long term by fundamentals. He sees prices rebounding a bit from a 'crash of historic proportions.' He argues that global demand is too weak to sustain an upward move in commodities, at least for now.The bull case for commodities depends on two factors. One, that a weakening dollar will underpin an upward move in dollar-priced commodities. If the dollar is weaker, fundamentals dictate that more bucks are needed to buy the same bucket of soy beans.The second factor is the notion that China is moving again, sucking enormous amounts of raw materials into its industrial maw. But Weinberg counters that even if that's true (which he seems to have some doubts about), China's demand is mere 'nuance' in a world of depressed demand for raw materials.Weinberg concedes that the 'consolidation' in commodity prices from extremely low levels could lead to some higher prices before the move peters out and fundamentals reassert themselves.Troubling for the recovery gang is that the higher commodity prices can act as a governor on rebounding growth. In the U.S., gasoline prices are up more than 50% and that's starting to chew into whatever consumer spending individuals can muster, which isn't a good thing.Dave Kansas
The recent spike in commodity prices has grabbed headlines and sparked wide-ranging debate about just how much higher prices can go. Some of the price moves, notably in the oil markets, seem to defy the underlying fundamentals of plentiful supply and rather anemic demand.Since the start of the year, oil prices are up nearly 50%, copper is up more than 60%, and gold has gained more than 10% and recently flirted once again with $1,000 an ounce. Even foodstuffs have recorded low double-digit gains.Is the rise in commodity prices stemming from the whiff of global economic recovery or simply a rebound from absurdly low levels which may not even be sustainable?Underlying the debate is the nascent concern about inflation. Longer-term Treasury yields have retreated in the past few days, but they remain higher than a month ago, which some read as a revival of inflation fear in the bond markets, despite all evidence to the contrary. A sustained rise in commodity prices would certainly buttress the so-called bond vigilantes who fear future inflation.Carl Weinberg, Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics, a Valhalla, N.Y., research firm, believes the rise in commodities is not justified in the long term by fundamentals. He sees prices rebounding a bit from a 'crash of historic proportions.' He argues that global demand is too weak to sustain an upward move in commodities, at least for now.The bull case for commodities depends on two factors. One, that a weakening dollar will underpin an upward move in dollar-priced commodities. If the dollar is weaker, fundamentals dictate that more bucks are needed to buy the same bucket of soy beans.The second factor is the notion that China is moving again, sucking enormous amounts of raw materials into its industrial maw. But Weinberg counters that even if that's true (which he seems to have some doubts about), China's demand is mere 'nuance' in a world of depressed demand for raw materials.Weinberg concedes that the 'consolidation' in commodity prices from extremely low levels could lead to some higher prices before the move peters out and fundamentals reassert themselves.Troubling for the recovery gang is that the higher commodity prices can act as a governor on rebounding growth. In the U.S., gasoline prices are up more than 50% and that's starting to chew into whatever consumer spending individuals can muster, which isn't a good thing.Dave Kansas
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