摩根士丹利虽然已摆脱危机模式，但仍面临诸多挑战。债券价格回升导致的会计处理变化预计将使其遭受12亿至17亿美元的损失，远高于分析师预期。此外，摩根士丹利还需应对地产和杠杆贷款等基本业务问题。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)已经不再身处危机模式了，但这家华尔街公司却仍在苦苦寻求摆脱下滑势头之路。除了地产和其他基础业务的问题，最近摩根士丹利又多了一项烦恼：其债券价格最近出现了回升，这通常被视为是有利因素，但实际上会冲击到摩根士丹利的利润。本月底，摩根士丹利将公布今年第一财季的业绩。据知情人士透露，由于该公司在金融危机爆发之前发行的部分债券的会计处理方法进行了调整，摩根士丹利可能会在债券方面遭受12亿-17亿美元的损失。Bloomberg News摩根士丹利董事长兼CEO麦晋桁这一数字远远高于许多分析师的预期，他们预计摩根士丹利会因债券价格波动遭受5亿-10亿美元的损失。随着摩根士丹利逐渐远离去年秋天外界对其陷入困境的担忧情绪，这些债券的价格不断上涨，近期价值大约290亿美元。不过，价格上涨迫使摩根士丹利增加了欠投资者的债券票面价值。由于摩根士丹利调整了这批债券的会计准则，按照从公开市场回购的价值计算负债，因此公司帐目中会计入更多的负债，从而对收益造成损害。这一打击使得摩根士丹利回吐了去年从这批债券获得的部分收益，该公司还可能因此连续第二个季度亏损。这是摩根士丹利上市23年来从未发生过的局面。分析师们预计，摩根士丹利当季每股亏损7美分，上年同期为每股亏损1.45美元。周三又有两名分析师发表报告，预计摩根士丹利第一财季或将亏损。受此影响，摩根士丹利股价下跌63美分，至22.69美元，跌幅2.7%；不过今年以来仍然上涨了41%。摩根士丹利发言人拒绝对公司收益发表评论。糟糕的第一财季业绩还将显示出，摩根士丹利要摆脱当年市况好时在地产和杠杆贷款上进行的投资是多么艰难。预计这些资产在第一财季将至少冲销10亿美元，给摩根士丹利董事长兼首席执行长麦晋桁(John Mack)的持续努力笼罩上厚重的阴影；麦晋桁一直在推动公司避开高风险业务，更加专注于为公司客户进行交易。一些分析师表示，减少交易业务也可能打击到摩根士丹利的第一季度业绩。和其他证券公司一样，摩根士丹利也承受着投资银行和资产管理大环境不景气带来的压力。这种压力或许可以解释为什么麦晋桁并不着急归还摩根士丹利根据问题资产救助计划(TARP)从联邦政府获得的100亿美元注资。麦晋桁2月份对股东表示，公司的计划是在可行的时候尽快还清这笔资金。但3月27日参加白宫一个会议时，麦晋桁的说话又发生了变化。他随后接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，迅速还清注资是可能的，但这会削弱问题资产救助计划的初衷。预计摩根士丹利截至4月20日当周的第一财季业绩不会令麦晋桁再次陷入去年9月那种急于提振市场对公司信心的混乱局面。从那时之后，摩根士丹利向三菱UFJ金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group)出售了股份，与花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)达成了组建合资经纪行的协议，这可能有利于摩根士丹利的长期收益。Aaron Lucchetti相关阅读MUFJ和摩根士丹利合并日本证券业务 2009-03-26摩根士丹利前中国高管接受调查 2009-02-13 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日12:24', 'MS'));摩根士丹利英文名称：Morgan Stanley总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：MS
Morgan Stanley isn't in crisis mode anymore, but the Wall Street firm is still struggling to dig out of a slump.Adding to woes from real-estate and other basic businesses: The recent rebound in its bond prices, generally thought of as a positive, will actually hurt the company's bottom line.Because of the accounting treatment on some bonds issued by Morgan Stanley before the financial crisis erupted, the New York company is expected to take a hit of $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion on the bonds when it reports quarterly results later this month, according to people familiar with the situation.That is somewhat higher than the $500 million to $1 billion mark that many analysts are predicting Morgan would take from the bond-price move.The bonds, valued at about $29 billion recently, rallied as Morgan Stanley distanced itself from fears last fall that it was in dire straits. However, the gains forced the firm to increase the paper value of bonds it owes to investors. Since Morgan Stanley adjusts its marks on these bonds as if they were being bought back on the open market, the more expensive liability flows to its bottom line, hurting earnings.While the hit reverses some of the gains Morgan Stanley got last year from the same securities, it could plunge the company into the red for the second quarter in a row. That hasn't happened in the 23 years since the firm went public.Analysts expect a seven-cent per share loss, down from a $1.45-a-share gain a year earlier. On Wednesday, two more analysts published reports predicting Morgan would lose money in the first quarter; its shares dropped 2.7%, or 63 cents, to $22.69, but they are still up 41% on the year.A Morgan spokeswoman declined to comment on the company's earnings.Ugly first-quarter results also would show how hard it is for Morgan Stanley to escape bets it made on real estate and leveraged loans when times were good. Write-downs on those assets are expected to total at least $1 billion in the latest quarter, casting a long shadow over Chairman and Chief Executive John Mack's continuing push to shed risky businesses and focus more on trading for the firm's clients.Taking fewer chances with trading also might have cost Morgan Stanley business in the first quarter, according to some analysts. And like other securities firms, Morgan Stanley still is dogged by a dismal climate for investment banking and asset management.The strains help explain why Mr. Mack is in no hurry to pay back the $10 billion in capital Morgan Stanley received from the federal government as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.In February, Mr. Mack told shareholders that the company's 'intent is to pay it off as soon as it is feasible.' On March 27, though, the CEO struck a different tone in a White House meeting, saying in an interview with The Wall Street Journal shortly afterward that a quick payback, while possible, would 'undercut the purpose' of TARP.The first-quarter results, due the week of April 20, aren't expected to plunge Mr. Mack back into anything like the scramble he faced last September to shore up confidence in the firm. Since then, Morgan Stanley has sold a stake to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and struck a joint-venture brokerage deal with Citigroup Inc., which could lift earnings in the long run.Aaron Lucchetti
Morgan Stanley isn't in crisis mode anymore, but the Wall Street firm is still struggling to dig out of a slump.Adding to woes from real-estate and other basic businesses: The recent rebound in its bond prices, generally thought of as a positive, will actually hurt the company's bottom line.Because of the accounting treatment on some bonds issued by Morgan Stanley before the financial crisis erupted, the New York company is expected to take a hit of $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion on the bonds when it reports quarterly results later this month, according to people familiar with the situation.That is somewhat higher than the $500 million to $1 billion mark that many analysts are predicting Morgan would take from the bond-price move.The bonds, valued at about $29 billion recently, rallied as Morgan Stanley distanced itself from fears last fall that it was in dire straits. However, the gains forced the firm to increase the paper value of bonds it owes to investors. Since Morgan Stanley adjusts its marks on these bonds as if they were being bought back on the open market, the more expensive liability flows to its bottom line, hurting earnings.While the hit reverses some of the gains Morgan Stanley got last year from the same securities, it could plunge the company into the red for the second quarter in a row. That hasn't happened in the 23 years since the firm went public.Analysts expect a seven-cent per share loss, down from a $1.45-a-share gain a year earlier. On Wednesday, two more analysts published reports predicting Morgan would lose money in the first quarter; its shares dropped 2.7%, or 63 cents, to $22.69, but they are still up 41% on the year.A Morgan spokeswoman declined to comment on the company's earnings.Ugly first-quarter results also would show how hard it is for Morgan Stanley to escape bets it made on real estate and leveraged loans when times were good. Write-downs on those assets are expected to total at least $1 billion in the latest quarter, casting a long shadow over Chairman and Chief Executive John Mack's continuing push to shed risky businesses and focus more on trading for the firm's clients.Taking fewer chances with trading also might have cost Morgan Stanley business in the first quarter, according to some analysts. And like other securities firms, Morgan Stanley still is dogged by a dismal climate for investment banking and asset management.The strains help explain why Mr. Mack is in no hurry to pay back the $10 billion in capital Morgan Stanley received from the federal government as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.In February, Mr. Mack told shareholders that the company's 'intent is to pay it off as soon as it is feasible.' On March 27, though, the CEO struck a different tone in a White House meeting, saying in an interview with The Wall Street Journal shortly afterward that a quick payback, while possible, would 'undercut the purpose' of TARP.The first-quarter results, due the week of April 20, aren't expected to plunge Mr. Mack back into anything like the scramble he faced last September to shore up confidence in the firm. Since then, Morgan Stanley has sold a stake to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and struck a joint-venture brokerage deal with Citigroup Inc., which could lift earnings in the long run.Aaron Lucchetti
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