作为金融危机中一个主要防波堤的日圆终于开始屈服于全球经济的重压。去年8月以来，日圆一直是全球表现最佳的货币，甚至超过了美元；因为投资者对风险兴致全无，买进日圆解除此前的头寸。如今，日本一连串糟糕的经济数据已开始撼动日圆作为“避险天堂”的美名。在过去两周中，美元兑日圆累计上涨了约8%。周三纽约汇市，美元兑97.54日圆，创去年11月中旬以来新高。日圆近期弱势促使交易员重新思考长期以来日圆和其他金融市场之间的联系。虽然日圆倾向于和股市走势相反，但这种关联似乎正逐步瓦解。主攻汇市的纽约对冲基金FX Concepts负责人约翰·泰勒(John Taylor)说，该基金本月早些时候已开始从做多日圆转向做空日圆，这一策略调整已于上周末时完成。他说，日圆的跌势这才刚刚开始。其他投资者也认为日圆将进一步走软。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)董事总经理任永力(Stephen Jen)周三在一份致客户的研究报告中预测，年底时美元最高可涨至兑115日圆。日圆走软可以缓解日本大型出口企业的压力。近几个月来日圆走强对丰田(Toyota Motor Corp.)等日本汽车企业带来了尤为沉重的打击。美元汇价每下滑1日圆，丰田的年度营运利润就会减少350亿日圆。如今，日本经济接二连三的负面消息终于开始殃及日圆。在2008年第四季度，日本经济的萎缩程度创下30年之最。1月份日本出口降幅创历史最高水平，贸易逆差也刷新了纪录。当年经济景气好的时候，由于日本利率水平极低，包括对冲基金经理和日本家庭主妇在内的全球投资者都以非常便宜的价格借入日圆。然后他们抛售日圆买入其他货币，在纽约新西兰等地投资，以求更高的回报。这就是所谓的融资套利交易。随着金融危机愈演愈烈，投资者大举解除此类头寸。因为买进日圆是此类操作的环节之一，日圆汇价因而上扬。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)提供的数据显示，从去年8月至本月月初，日圆兑一篮子货币的贸易加权汇率累计涨幅超过了30%。汇市专家说，眼下似乎投资者已经不再那么热衷这种操作了。融资套利交易影响的消退显示出，日圆或许将不再是衡量投资者风险偏好的标尺了。苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank Of Scotland)驻香港的分析师Dong-Hyun Ahn认为，这有点像是“政权更迭”。周三尾盘，欧元从周二尾盘的1.2846美元跌至1.2713美元。欧元兑124.01日圆，与前日的124.36日圆基本持平。英镑兑1.4199美元，周二尾盘报1.4488美元。美元对瑞士法郎从周二尾盘的1.1606涨至1.1704。Joanna Slater / Alison Tudor-Ackroyd相关阅读避险买盘再次推动美元上扬 2009-02-26日圆涨势告一段落 2009-02-25
One of the major bulwarks in the financial crisis, the Japanese yen, is succumbing to the global economic pressure.Since August of last year, the yen has been the best-performing currency in the world, trumping even the U.S. dollar as investors lost all appetite for risk and bought yen to unwind previous bets. Now, crushing economic data out of Japan is starting to overwhelm the currency's 'safe haven' status.The dollar has strengthened almost 8% against the yen in the past two weeks. Wednesday in New York, it bought 97.54 yen, the highest since mid-November.The yen's recent weakness is prompting traders to rethink the longstanding link between the currency and other financial markets. While the yen has tended to move in the opposite direction of stocks, that pairing appears to be breaking down.John Taylor, who heads FX Concepts, a New York hedge fund focusing on currencies, says that earlier this month his firm began moving from a bet in favor of the yen to a wager that it would weaken, completing the process late last week. The bout of yen weakness is 'just in its early stages,' he says.Other investors also see the yen weakening more. The dollar could buy as much as 115 yen by year end, wrote Stephen Jen, a Morgan Stanley managing director, in a client note Wednesday.A weaker yen would be a relief for Japan's biggest exporters. The yen's strength in recent months has been particularly devastating to Japan's auto makers, including Toyota Motor Corp. Each time the dollar's value slips by one yen, Toyota sees its annual operating profit cut by 35 billion yen.Now, a drumbeat of bad news about Japan's economy is hitting the yen. In the final quarter of 2008, the economy contracted by the fastest pace in three decades. In January, exports suffered their biggest decline ever and the country's trade deficit expanded to record size.When times were good, global investors ranging from hedge funds to Japanese housewives borrowed cheaply in yen, thanks to Japan's super-low interest rates. Then they would sell the yen for other currencies and invest the proceeds from New York to New Zealand to earn higher returns.Investors reversed such bets, known as 'carry trades,' in significant fashion as the financial crisis mounted. Because undoing the trade involves buying back yen, it strengthens the Japanese currency. The yen rose more than 30% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from August 2008 until the start of this month, according to J.P. Morgan Chase.Most such trades have likely been undone at this stage, say currency experts. The ebbing influence of carry trades means that the yen may no longer function as a barometer for investors' appetite for risk. What this amounts to is a kind of 'regime change,' says Dong-Hyun Ahn, an analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong.Late Wednesday, the euro was down versus the dollar at $1.2713 from $1.2846 late Tuesday, and little-changed against the yen at 124.01 yen from 124.36 yen. The U.K. pound was at $1.4199 from $1.4488, and the dollar was at 1.1704 Swiss francs, from 1.1606 francs Tuesday.
One of the major bulwarks in the financial crisis, the Japanese yen, is succumbing to the global economic pressure.Since August of last year, the yen has been the best-performing currency in the world, trumping even the U.S. dollar as investors lost all appetite for risk and bought yen to unwind previous bets. Now, crushing economic data out of Japan is starting to overwhelm the currency's 'safe haven' status.The dollar has strengthened almost 8% against the yen in the past two weeks. Wednesday in New York, it bought 97.54 yen, the highest since mid-November.The yen's recent weakness is prompting traders to rethink the longstanding link between the currency and other financial markets. While the yen has tended to move in the opposite direction of stocks, that pairing appears to be breaking down.John Taylor, who heads FX Concepts, a New York hedge fund focusing on currencies, says that earlier this month his firm began moving from a bet in favor of the yen to a wager that it would weaken, completing the process late last week. The bout of yen weakness is 'just in its early stages,' he says.Other investors also see the yen weakening more. The dollar could buy as much as 115 yen by year end, wrote Stephen Jen, a Morgan Stanley managing director, in a client note Wednesday.A weaker yen would be a relief for Japan's biggest exporters. The yen's strength in recent months has been particularly devastating to Japan's auto makers, including Toyota Motor Corp. Each time the dollar's value slips by one yen, Toyota sees its annual operating profit cut by 35 billion yen.Now, a drumbeat of bad news about Japan's economy is hitting the yen. In the final quarter of 2008, the economy contracted by the fastest pace in three decades. In January, exports suffered their biggest decline ever and the country's trade deficit expanded to record size.When times were good, global investors ranging from hedge funds to Japanese housewives borrowed cheaply in yen, thanks to Japan's super-low interest rates. Then they would sell the yen for other currencies and invest the proceeds from New York to New Zealand to earn higher returns.Investors reversed such bets, known as 'carry trades,' in significant fashion as the financial crisis mounted. Because undoing the trade involves buying back yen, it strengthens the Japanese currency. The yen rose more than 30% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from August 2008 until the start of this month, according to J.P. Morgan Chase.Most such trades have likely been undone at this stage, say currency experts. The ebbing influence of carry trades means that the yen may no longer function as a barometer for investors' appetite for risk. What this amounts to is a kind of 'regime change,' says Dong-Hyun Ahn, an analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong.Late Wednesday, the euro was down versus the dollar at $1.2713 from $1.2846 late Tuesday, and little-changed against the yen at 124.01 yen from 124.36 yen. The U.K. pound was at $1.4199 from $1.4488, and the dollar was at 1.1704 Swiss francs, from 1.1606 francs Tuesday.
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