笔记：刘未鹏思考的技术与艺术（原“学会思考”）

        在读《暗时间》这本书的时候了解到刘未鹏，也了解到关于心理学“学会思考”的豆列，推荐的书很棒，体系也很完善，特作记录。

豆列的地址在：

https://www.douban.com/doulist/127649/

作者博客上的全文：“如何清晰地思考：近一年来业余阅读的关于思维方面的知识结构整理（附大幅思维导图）”

http://blog.youkuaiyun.com/pongba/article/details/3549560

豆列所列的知识结构思维导图原链接失效了，新链接在这里，为了方便查阅我也讲作者的思维导图列在文末：

http://www.xmind.net/m/wFsZ

引用作者的话解释下如何使用这个思维导图：

思维导图是我这一年来学习的知识结构总揽（用 XMind 画的思维导图）。注：这只是一个整体的知识结构，或者说“寻路图”，其中固然包含一些例子（用 “e.g.” 标出），但最重要的是从各个分支引申出去的延伸阅读，后者包含上百个很有价值的 wikipedia条目，不下 50本经典的著作（大部分我已经读过，小部分经过我的仔细考察，正在阅读中或者肯定是有价值的）。

如何获得这些延伸出去的阅读，有两个办法：

1. 在总揽图中抽出关键字到 Wikipedia&Google 上查找，如：informal fallacy，cognitive biases, bounded rationality, critical thinking, argumentation theory, behavioral economics, problem solving 等等（以上这些关键字你都会在思维导图中看到）。注：阅读 Wikipedia 时要严重注意每个条目后面的 Reference ，一般来说这些参考资料本身也都非常经典，其价值不亚于 Wikipedia 条目本身。
2. 查看我整理的四个豆列：
   • 【只读经典】心理学改变生活
   • 【只读经典】学会思考
   • 【只读经典】判断与决策
   • 机器学习与人工智能学习资源导引

附录：作者的思维导图文本

How to Think Straight

1 How Mind Works

1.1 Disciplines

1.1.1 Cognitive Science

1.1.2 Neural Science

1.1.3 Psychology

1.1.4 Evolutionary Psychology

1.1.5 Machine Learning

1.1.6 Artificial Intelligence

1.2 Theories

1.2.1 Bounded Rationality; Simple Heuristics that Makes us Smart

1.2.2 Social Animal

1.2.3 Language as a window into Human Mind

1.2.4 Decision Theory

1.2.5 Reasoning, Deductive and Inductive

1.2.6 Argumentation Theory

1.2.7 Bayesian Inference

2 Cognitive Fallacies

2.1 Fallacies in Human Reasoning

2.1.1 Informal Fallacies

2.1.1.1 e.g. False Dilemma

2.1.1.2 e.g. Correlation doesn't imply Causation

2.1.1.3 e.g. Post Hoc

2.1.1.4 e.g. Begging the Question

2.1.2 Formal Fallacies

2.1.2.1 e.g. Denying the Antecedent

2.1.2.2 e.g. Affirming the Consequent

2.1.2.3 e.g. Affirming a Disjunct

2.1.3 Cognitive Biases

2.1.3.1 e.g. Bandwagon Effect

2.1.3.2 e.g. Authority Bias

2.1.3.3 e.g. Confirmation Bias

2.1.3.4 e.g. Framing Effect

2.1.3.5 e.g. Wishful Thinking

2.2 Fallacies in daily Judgment and Decision Making

2.2.1 Judgment and Decision Making

2.2.1.1 e.g. Cognitive Dissonance and Self-Justification

2.2.1.2 e.g. Representativeness, Availability and Anchoring

2.2.1.3 e.g. Paradox of Choice

2.2.2 Behavioral Economics

2.2.2.1 Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes

2.2.2.2 Predictably Irrational

2.2.2.3 Black Swan

3 Critical Thinking

3.1 What's the problem?

3.1.1 Set a yardstick first, and then measure everything against it.

3.2 What're the assumptions?

3.2.1 Unconscious Assumptions are Dangerous

3.2.1.1 It ain't so much the things we don't know that get us into trouble. It's the things we know that just ain't so.

3.2.2 How to Smoke Out the Assumptions?

3.2.2.1 By asking questions

3.2.2.1.1 Routine Question: "It doesn't have to ..."; "Do we have to ... ?"

3.2.2.1.2 Routine Question: "This doesn't necessarily mean ..."

3.2.2.1.3 Routine Question: "What would happen if we don't do this?"

3.2.2.2 By formalizing the reasoning process

3.2.2.2.1 Specify the Premise(s).

3.2.2.2.2 Look at the Conclusion(s).

3.2.2.2.3 Does the conclusion(s) necessarily follow the Premise(s)?

3.2.2.3 By learning critical-thinking

3.2.2.3.1 e.g. False analogy

3.2.2.3.2 e.g. Problem of Induction

3.3 What're the facts?

3.3.1 If you don't have knowledge, you have assumptions.

3.3.2 Do your homework, get the facts right.

3.3.3 Routine Question: "Really?"

3.4 Where's the logic?

3.4.1 Routine Question: "... doesn't necessarily mean ...!"

3.4.2 Routine Question: "It doesn't have to be ... to ...!"

3.4.3 Routine Question: "... and why is that?"

3.5 What's the conclusion?

3.5.1 Avoid jumping to conclusions; see Cognitive Shortcut.

3.5.2 Routine Question: "So?", "Then?", "So what?"

4 Problem Solving

4.1 Problems

4.1.1 Problem often known and well defined

4.1.1.1 e.g. Math

4.1.1.2 e.g. Algorithms

4.1.2 You figure out what the problem is

4.1.2.1 Problems we face everyday

4.1.2.1.1 e.g. financial decisions

4.1.2.1.2 e.g. time management

4.1.2.1.3 e.g. career

4.1.2.1.4 e.g. relationship

4.1.2.2 Judgment and Decision Making in general

4.1.2.3 Practical Problems

4.1.2.4 Complex Decisions

4.2 Techniques

4.2.1 Routine Question: "What's the Problem?"

4.2.2 Heuristics

4.2.2.1 e.g. Trial and Error

4.2.2.2 e.g. Analogy

4.2.2.3 e.g. Specialization

4.2.2.4 e.g. Simplification

4.2.2.5 e.g. Working Backwards

4.2.2.6 e.g. Brainstorming

4.2.2.7 e.g. Root Cause Analysis

4.2.2.8 e.g. Lateral Thinking

4.2.3 Decision Making

4.2.3.1 Pros and Cons Analysis

4.2.3.2 Key Factor Analysis

4.2.3.3 Choice under Uncertainty