a word seen from http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2010/07/groundhog-day-or-the-problem-with-ab-testing.html
explanation from wekipeida:
A back-of-the-envelope calculation[1] is a rough calculation, typically jotted down on any available scrap of paper such as the actual back of an envelope. It is more than a guess, but less than an accurate calculation or mathematical proof.
The defining characteristic of back-of-the-envelope calculations is the use of simplified assumptions. A similar phrase is "back of a napkin".