IPAD--Web的未来？还有WEB的未来

我看了IPAD的发布会是没有什么感觉的，似乎并没有觉得IPAD能带来什么新的变革。无非是多了一种NETBOOK CLIENT而已的，不过对于WEB的未来我倒是有看法的，我觉得总归会有一样东西会在RIA产品的激烈竞争中胜出:但是，众多的RIA方案中，我并不觉得任何一家有100%的胜算，我总觉得SILVERLIGHT 很快很好，FLASH很好用很好，HTML5很标准很好；潜意识中似乎还有一种感觉，最后标准会胜出。因为它不需要插件...

直到看了AndrewTrice的这篇IPAD评论，我才慢慢回过头来，为什么一定要没有插件？既然插件已经存在这么长时间了，而且用户也愿意使用插件，那为什么一定要打倒插件呢？HTML5固然标准，但是它的解决方案几乎没有，没有好的HTML5的图形设计工具，没有IDE。HTML5甚至还没有被提上议事日程，却已经让人们憧憬，似乎内心觉得：天下分久必合，所谓让WEB合的也许就是HTML5了，但是在Trice看来似乎HTML5离实用还太遥远太遥远。 也许我该把对HTML5的期望降下来了。

其实从我的内心来讲，可能也就是厌倦了多样化的产品给开发人员带来的挑战：你说你既要知道FLASH又要知道SILVERLIGHT还要能够更上这两个产品的变化，这得是多大的工程啊，每天你得FLOLLOW多少UPDATE，你得多看多少DEMO，还要把这两个东西时不时的比较一番。 其实渴望这些技术的统一其实也是希望能够更加轻松一点吧

IPAD不是未来，IPAD给开发人员带来了一个新的职位：IPAD上的应用开发，IPAD给用户带来了苹果的又一个客户端，肯定会有很多人去购买这个（目前看来）不是很令人满意的终端。

Is the iPad really the future of the web?

Is the iPad *really* the future of the web? Some people seem to be eating up the hype, and hanging onto every statement that Apple makes, but I'm not convinced. There are a lot of features of the iPad that leave me scratching my head, but in this post I want to talk about the lack of plug-in support.

Plugins are an integral part of the web experience... Ignoring that fact could be a mistake. I'm not just talking about Flash; there are a lot more plugins out there than just Flash.

Gaming
Think about online gaming: Quake Live is it's own plugin (yes, there is a mac version too), there are those Flash and Silverlight casual games all over the web (which are quite popular on netbooks), the Unity 3D plugin games, oh, and JAVA Applet based games too... none of them will work. If this device is to take on Netbooks, it must compete in this area.

HTML5
Even if the HTML5 standard ever really becomes a standard, the development tools will are not caught up, and each application implementation will need to be tweaked for each browser variant of HTML5. There are no graphical IDEs like Flash or Blend for HTML5 to create expressive and visual applications. It will be more difficult to make content targeted to run without a player based solution.

RIA
RIAs are being built every day leveraging both Flash and Silverlight for complex solutions and data visualizations, and many of them contain features that you simply cannot do in HTML alone (even with HTML5). I don't see enterprises wanting to re-invest into the applications that they have already built, just b/c the iPad does not support them. Instead, I suspect that they will turn to another hardware solution.

This doesn't mean that I don't believe that the iPad has a future. I have no doubt that it will have an influential role in mobile computing. A lot of effort and resources went into building it, and decisions were made that we are not privy to. I simply disagree with the fact that this is the future of the web. Perhaps it is not even meant to take on netbooks, or be used in the enterprise.

Does this mean that I will never write software for the iPad? ...Absolutely not. I'm already looking into it, and it offers an interesting paradigm. Does this mean that I will never use an iPad? Nope, not that either. All I'm saying is that I'm not sure it is {the future of the web}.

These are my thoughts, and I'm sure there are many out there that may disagree. Feel free to post your thoughts in the comments below.