Recent talk on Efficient Market Hypothesis with Justin

Here is the original script (in Chinese).

This nice talk let me review the assumption (failure of EMH) that I use for the anlysis model that I'm currently working with. Now I realize that EMH is half true or half false, which doesn't matter since there's no perfect model that can prove it. Within a short scope of time, the market can be predictable, since perceptions are the main driver behind prices under such circumstance. Furthermore, powered by game theory or financial psychology, these perceptions can be studied. For the long run, however, prices are largely determined by the underlying assets' value and all kinds of random economical or political events. Unless you have the inside information or are insightful enough to forseen the profitability, EMH works there.