门户进军威客，Web2.0真是香饽饽吗？

 

门户进军威客，Web2.0真是香饽饽吗？

文/王易见   

 

    今天看到一篇文章说雅虎中国和奇虎已经全面杀入威客领域，感觉比较突然，我们知道，门户早已完成了原始积累的阶段，进军Web2.0是易如反掌，所以如果Web2.0的确有价值，那门户进军Web2.0是迟早的事情，只是一旦大规模杀入Web2.0的领域，那些以Web2.0为生“噱头”的网站还有回旋的余地吗？

 

    仔细分析一下Web1.0和Web2.0我们就知道，Web1.0提供的其实是最基础的服务，包括内容、即时通讯、电子邮件、搜索引擎等是绝大多数网民每天会使用的服务，因此粘性大、应用广泛。我们注意到，这些服务并不能直接带来商业价值，但建立在这些基础服务之上可以开拓多种不同的商业模式。那么Web2.0呢？Web2.0有一些衍生服务，例如博客、播客、SNS、威客等。博客和播客也是基于互联网内容而生，只是来源和Web1.0有不同，因此其盈利模式仍然是广告，而且遭遇了门户的正面进攻。其实，很多Web2.0并不能单独剥离Web1.0而存在，这就好比是下层基础和上层建筑的关系。

 

    Web2.0的另外一个特点就是产品的细分化，互联网细分化发展是个大趋势，但究竟市场能做到多大还是个问号。我们将网民在互联网上的消费按照互联网应用来做一些分类，显然，广告、网游、电子商务是最大的三块，如果市场蛋糕不变或者增长缓慢，新兴的应用要在市场上分得一杯羹实在是难。

 

     继博客和视频之后，还鲜有门户进军威客领域。这说明什么呢？博客和视频虽然看盈利模式不清晰，但用户量很大，若能整合到门户中，商业价值还是不小，但威客不同，毕竟威客是会直接产生消费的，这就将很多习惯于免费的人拒之门外，而且有很多不规范因素在里面。可见，威客和博客视频不同，它是盈利模式清晰但市场不够完善。我想没有哪家门户会为了那20%的分层而去开拓一个并不完善的市场。其实，这反映了大部分巨头对Web2.0的态度------观望在先，一有机会就毫不犹豫出击。

 

     到目前为止，Web2.0中似乎只有视频网站活得滋润些，很多威客网站仍过着入不敷出的日子，我不知道这些网站能否度过寒冬创造奇迹，但我清楚，如果有一天Web2.0真的产生了巨大的商业价值，我想这个市场一定归Web1.0的公司占有，而不是Web2.0的公司，因为他们需要原始积累，等到Web2.0发达的那天已经轮不到他们了。

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The portals set foot in WitKey, Web2.0 is hot property or not?

 

    Today I read one articles which confesses that Yahoo and Qihoo have set foot in Witkey. That’s sudden news. As we know, the portals have finished the primary process. It is dead easy for them to overcome the new field. So if Web2.0 is hot property. We can make sure that the portals will march to that field early or not. If that, does the Web2.0 websites can live as good as today.

 

    If we analyze the problem, we can get a conclusion that the service of Web2.0 is basic, which includes Internet Content, Email, IM, Search Engine. All of them are taken use every day. These services can’t bring about commercial value directly. But fundamentally speaking, more commercial value can be brought forth. There are some other kinds of service for example Blog, Video, SNS, witkey. They are special but they base on Internet Content. the profitable mode is still advertisement so they encounter the positive attack of portals. Actually, many applications of Web2.0 can’t live without Web1.0.

 

    Another feature for Web2.0 is the differentiation of product. that’s a main trend but how about the market? I think the market can’t be large enough. We can divide the applications into such kinds as advertisement, online games, E-commerce. They are three main parts. If the cake can’t enlarge, it is difficult for the new applications to occupy the market.

 

    Few portals set foot in the field of Witkey. That’s different from Blog and Video. We can see although the profitable of Blog and Video is dim, but if it can be integrated into portals the business value is still attractive. How about Witkey? The consumption it makes will cause some passive factors. The prospect of Witkey is still dim so I think no portals will cultivate the market for the 20 percent of value. But if it is promising, they will grasp the chance as quickly as possible.

 

    Up to now, just only the video websites have a lucky life. Many Witkey websites can’t earn as much as the cost. I don’t know whether they can create the miracle. But I now if some day, Web2.0 produce enormous commercial value, the market have been mastered by Web1.0. Web2.0 need to be refined, so at that time they will have no opportunity.

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