对电力系统的敏感性测试的必要性和方法汇总

个人论文笔记

What Is the Reserves-to-Production Ratio?
The reserves-to-production ratio is an estimate of the number of years that the site of a natural resource will continue to be productive based on current production rates.

The ratio is used to forecast many business factors such as the total income that can be expected to be earned from the source and the number of employees needed over its active lifespan. It also is a key factor in determining whether further exploration is needed to identify new sources of the natural resource.

INNER WORKINGS OF A COMBINED-CYCLE POWER PLANT
A combined-cycle power plant uses both a gas and a steam turbine together to produce up to 50 percent more electricity from the same fuel than a traditional simple-cycle plant. The waste heat from the gas turbine is routed to the nearby steam turbine, which generates extra power.

分析平台和方法

平台：After two years of research and market validation, Pythias Analytics, LLC was jointly established in July 2020 by HARC and university partners. Pythias delivers expert-led, innovative, and optimized solutions to help the power sector prepare for and adapt to future climate risks. By developing tools that incorporate climate scenarios into grid modeling, energy managers in Texas and elsewhere will have the resources to build a resilient electricity supply in the future. (harc)
Resources are available

For the last few years, a significant amount of work has been done looking at climate risk impacts on the energy sector. The Department of Energy and the National Academies of Science have published a multitude of reports on the coming climate risk to our power sector:

State Energy Resilience Framework — Argonne National Lab;
Power Sector Resilience Planning Guidebook — National Renewable Energy Lab; and
US Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather — US DOE.
The Pacific Northwest National Lab has been developing the IM3, an integrated modeling effort to help researchers better understand climate risk to the power sector.

HARC, the Houston Advanced Research Center, has been developing its climate risk analytics platform, Pythias Analytics, to help energy planners and utilities better assess their climate risk.

Recommendations

Winter Storm Uri has resulted in a humanitarian crisis for the state of Texas. Millions were without power, heat, and water for several days, and each of Texas’ 254 counties was affected in some way. We must focus our efforts on helping our communities to recover and to get people back to their normal lives. As we move forward, steps can be taken to mitigate the risk of future extreme weather events. The data and models tell us such events are coming. Unlike the 2011 winter outage events, our state leaders should pay attention to these signs and take appropriate steps to safeguard our communities and lessen the disastrous impacts of future events. Some recommendations for the PUCT, ERCOT, Texas Railroad Commission, and our state and federal policymakers follow:

Currently, most of Texas is an electric power island, isolated from the rest of the country. ERCOT should look seriously at interconnecting to the Eastern Connection and/or Western Connection.
Conduct a full system-wide risk assessment of climate risk threats to the power system. The National Renewable Energy Lab has a nice do-it-yourself guide that should be referenced.
Include