Cause and Effect: Can Large Language Models Truly Understand Causality?

本文是LLM系列文章,针对《Cause and Effect: Can Large Language Models Truly Understand
Causality?》的翻译。

因果关系:大型语言模型能否真正理解因果关系?

摘要

随着大型语言模型(LLM)的兴起,了解其在破译和解释语言所包含的复杂因果关系网络方面的能力和局限性变得至关重要。目前的方法使用显性或隐性因果推理,但强烈需要一种统一的方法,将两者结合起来,以更有效地处理广泛的因果关系。本研究提出了一种新的架构,称为上下文感知推理增强与反事实分析(CARE-CA)框架,以增强因果推理和可解释性。所提出的框架结合了具有ConceptNet和反事实陈述的显式因果检测模块,以及通过LLM的隐式因果检测。我们的框架更进一步,提供了一层反事实的解释,以强调LLM对因果关系的理解。ConceptNet的知识增强了多个因果推理任务的性能,如因果发现、因果识别和反事实推理。反事实句增加了“非由”情景的明确知识。通过结合这些强大的模块,我们的模型旨在提供对因果关系的更深入理解,从而增强可解释性。对基准数据集的评估显示,所有指标的性能都有所提高,如准确性、精确度、召回率和F1分数。我们还引入了CausalNet,这是一个新的数据集,伴随着我们的代码,以促进该领域的进一步研究。

1 引言

2 相关工作

3 方法

4 实验

5 分析

6 结论和未来工

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深度学习工具包 DeepLearningToolbox

深度学习工具包Deprecation notice.-----This toolbox is outdated and no longer maintained.There are much better tools available for deep learning than this toolbox, e.g. [Theano](http://deeplearning.net/software/theano/), [torch](http://torch.ch/) or [tensorflow](http://www.tensorflow.org/)I would suggest you use one of the tools mentioned above rather than use this toolbox.Best, Rasmus.DeepLearnToolbox================A Matlab toolbox for Deep Learning.Deep Learning is a new subfield of machine learning that focuses on learning deep hierarchical models of data.It is inspired by the human brain's apparent deep (layered, hierarchical) architecture.A good overview of the theory of Deep Learning theory is[Learning Deep Architectures for AI](http://www.iro.umontreal.ca/~bengioy/papers/ftml_book.pdf)For a more informal introduction, see the following videos by Geoffrey Hinton and Andrew Ng.* [The Next Generation of Neural Networks](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyzOUbkUf3M) (Hinton, 2007)* [Recent Developments in Deep Learning](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdIURAu1-aU) (Hinton, 2010)* [Unsupervised Feature Learning and Deep Learning](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmNOAtZIgIk) (Ng, 2011)If you use this toolbox in your research please cite [Prediction as a candidate for learning deep hierarchical models of data](http://www2.imm.dtu.dk/pubdb/views/publication_details.php?id=6284)```@MASTERSTHESIS\{IMM2012-06284, author = "R. 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Download.2. addpath(genpath('DeepLearnToolbox'));Example: Deep Belief Network---------------------```matlabfunction test_example_DBNload mnist_uint8;train_x = double(train_x) / 255;test_x = double(test_x) / 255;train_y = double(train_y);test_y = double(test_y);%% ex1 train a 100 hidden unit RBM and visualize its weightsrand('state',0)dbn.sizes = [100];opts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;opts.momentum = 0;opts.alpha = 1;dbn = dbnsetup(dbn, train_x, opts);dbn = dbntrain(dbn, train_x, opts);figure; visualize(dbn.rbm{1}.W'); % Visualize the RBM weights%% ex2 train a 100-100 hidden unit DBN and use its weights to initialize a NNrand('state',0)%train dbndbn.sizes = [100 100];opts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;opts.momentum = 0;opts.alpha = 1;dbn = dbnsetup(dbn, train_x, opts);dbn = dbntrain(dbn, train_x, opts);%unfold dbn to nnnn = dbnunfoldtonn(dbn, 10);nn.activation_function = 'sigm';%train nnopts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;nn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.10, 'Too big error');```Example: Stacked Auto-Encoders---------------------```matlabfunction test_example_SAEload mnist_uint8;train_x = double(train_x)/255;test_x = double(test_x)/255;train_y = double(train_y);test_y = double(test_y);%% ex1 train a 100 hidden unit SDAE and use it to initialize a FFNN% Setup and train a stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE)rand('state',0)sae = saesetup([784 100]);sae.ae{1}.activation_function = 'sigm';sae.ae{1}.learningRate = 1;sae.ae{1}.inputZeroMaskedFraction = 0.5;opts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;sae = saetrain(sae, train_x, opts);visualize(sae.ae{1}.W{1}(:,2:end)')% Use the SDAE to initialize a FFNNnn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);nn.activation_function = 'sigm';nn.learningRate = 1;nn.W{1} = sae.ae{1}.W{1};% Train the FFNNopts.numepochs = 1;opts.batchsize = 100;nn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.16, 'Too big error');```Example: Convolutional Neural Nets---------------------```matlabfunction test_example_CNNload mnist_uint8;train_x = double(reshape(train_x',28,28,60000))/255;test_x = double(reshape(test_x',28,28,10000))/255;train_y = double(train_y');test_y = double(test_y');%% ex1 Train a 6c-2s-12c-2s Convolutional neural network %will run 1 epoch in about 200 second and get around 11% error. %With 100 epochs you'll get around 1.2% errorrand('state',0)cnn.layers = { struct('type', 'i') %input layer struct('type', 'c', 'outputmaps', 6, 'kernelsize', 5) %convolution layer struct('type', 's', 'scale', 2) %sub sampling layer struct('type', 'c', 'outputmaps', 12, 'kernelsize', 5) %convolution layer struct('type', 's', 'scale', 2) %subsampling layer};cnn = cnnsetup(cnn, train_x, train_y);opts.alpha = 1;opts.batchsize = 50;opts.numepochs = 1;cnn = cnntrain(cnn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = cnntest(cnn, test_x, test_y);%plot mean squared errorfigure; plot(cnn.rL);assert(er<0.12, 'Too big error');```Example: Neural Networks---------------------```matlabfunction test_example_NNload mnist_uint8;train_x = double(train_x) / 255;test_x = double(test_x) / 255;train_y = double(train_y);test_y = double(test_y);% normalize[train_x, mu, sigma] = zscore(train_x);test_x = normalize(test_x, mu, sigma);%% ex1 vanilla neural netrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);opts.numepochs = 1; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 100; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samples[nn, L] = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.08, 'Too big error');%% ex2 neural net with L2 weight decayrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);nn.weightPenaltyL2 = 1e-4; % L2 weight decayopts.numepochs = 1; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 100; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesnn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');%% ex3 neural net with dropoutrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);nn.dropoutFraction = 0.5; % Dropout fraction opts.numepochs = 1; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 100; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesnn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');%% ex4 neural net with sigmoid activation functionrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 100 10]);nn.activation_function = 'sigm'; % Sigmoid activation functionnn.learningRate = 1; % Sigm require a lower learning rateopts.numepochs = 1; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 100; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesnn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');%% ex5 plotting functionalityrand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 20 10]);opts.numepochs = 5; % Number of full sweeps through datann.output = 'softmax'; % use softmax outputopts.batchsize = 1000; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesopts.plot = 1; % enable plottingnn = nntrain(nn, train_x, train_y, opts);[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');%% ex6 neural net with sigmoid activation and plotting of validation and training error% split training data into training and validation datavx = train_x(1:10000,:);tx = train_x(10001:end,:);vy = train_y(1:10000,:);ty = train_y(10001:end,:);rand('state',0)nn = nnsetup([784 20 10]); nn.output = 'softmax'; % use softmax outputopts.numepochs = 5; % Number of full sweeps through dataopts.batchsize = 1000; % Take a mean gradient step over this many samplesopts.plot = 1; % enable plottingnn = nntrain(nn, tx, ty, opts, vx, vy); % nntrain takes validation set as last two arguments (optionally)[er, bad] = nntest(nn, test_x, test_y);assert(er < 0.1, 'Too big error');```[![Bitdeli Badge](https://d2weczhvl823v0.cloudfront.net/rasmusbergpalm/deeplearntoolbox/trend.png)](https://bitdeli.com/free "Bitdeli Badge")

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