2016/07 Week2

文章讨论了Uber在飓风桑迪期间实施的“峰时价”政策引发的争议,并提出了改进措施,包括如何在灾难期间调整价格策略和服务方式。

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桑迪来袭,Uber陷入舆论风暴


While my hometown of New York City recovers from the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, there's been a different verbal maelstrom here in Silicon Valley: The question of whether Uber NYC's "surge pricing" is gouging or simply an effort to balance supply and demand.
就在我的老家纽约正从飓风桑迪的余波中逐渐恢复过来时,硅谷却掀起了一场完全不同的舆论风暴:大家纷纷发出质疑,电子叫车应用Uber在纽约的“峰时价格”(surge pricing)到底是漫天要价,还是在试图平衡供需。
aftermath ['ɑːftəmæθ] n.后果;余波;灾后时期
hurricane ['hɜːrəkən] n.飓风;暴风
there's been是there has been
verbal ['vɜːbl] adj.口头的;用言语的;用文字的;逐字的;动词的
maelstrom ['meɪlstrɑːm] n.大漩涡;大动乱
verbal maelstrom 舆论风暴
Silicon ['sɪlɪkən] 硅
valley ['væli] n.山谷;溪谷;流域
gouge [ɡaʊdʒ] v.用圆凿子挖;挖出;欺骗,欺诈


    Uber's an algorithm-driven company which responds to emotion with facts. However, especially in times of distress, people want to hear empathy, not data. I don't believe Uber set out to maximize profits in the wake of a hurricane, but I do think there are several steps they should consider in future extraordinary situations.
Uber是靠算法立家的公司,善于用数据和事实来回应舆情。不过,尤其是在灾害肆虐的非常时期,人们更想听到的是同情,而不是数据。我不觉得Uber会趁着飓风刚过就准备大发利市,但我确实认为,在以后类似的非常情况下,它应该考虑采取几个举措。


    There are aspects of Uber's culture which remind me of early Google (GOOG). Uber believes in data and algorithms. Its secret sauce, as CEO Travis Kalanick will note, are algorithms that attempt to minimize response time. It does this through routing (where should drivers be) and a pricing model that allows prices to "surge" during periods of intense demand such as holidays and weekend evenings.
Uber的企业文化中有些方面让我想起了早期的谷歌公司(Google)。Uber也十分推崇数据和算法。就像其首席执行官特拉维斯•卡兰尼克会强调的那样,Uber的秘密武器就是能把响应时间缩短到最小值的算法。能做到这一点,靠的是“路径规划”(routing,即司机应该赶到何处)和一个定价模型。需求大增的时段,比如节假日和周末的晚上,这个模型能让价格“迎峰上涨”(surge)。
    
    The company's argument, which I believe to be valid, is that its drivers are free agents. If they can get better rates with their private clients they will seek to service that market and not Uber patrons. Uber effectively increases their take-home pay during surge moments in order to encourage a driver to work within the Uber pool, or even extend their already long day to pick up a few more passengers (think of it as the price of overtime). This is how supply and demand works, regardless of whether you've ever read Atlas Shrugged.
Uber的说法是,司机都是自由人。这点我觉得说的在理。如果他们私下接客能赚得更多,他们当然会为这些客人服务,而不会成为Uber的用户。但Uber显著提高了他们在高峰期的收入,因此激励司机成为Uber圈子里的一员,甚至让这些司机延长已经够长的工作时间,多拉几位客人(可以把这看成是加班费)。这就是供需规律怎么作用的原理,跟一个人是否读过《阿特拉斯耸耸肩》(Atlas Shrugged,兰德最著名的小说,是“继《圣经》之后对当代美国人影响最大的一本书”—译注)无关。


    Uber is *not* a nonprofit public service. It is a company selling a premium service to customers who choose to pay. As such it will need to play within the evolving rules and regulations of the cities in which they operate. To date this has caused some issues in Boston, DC and Chicago. It's worthy of a separate post, but my general feeling is that some of the regulatory efforts are legitimate and aimed at passenger safety and a level playing field. Others are purely smokescreens from incumbent transport companies who have been able to get away with providing crappy services in the face of no competition.
Uber不是一种非盈利的公共服务。它是一家为愿意埋单的客户提供增值服务的公司。因此,它需要在其运营的城市遵循不断变化的各种规章制度。迄今为止,它已经在波士顿、华盛顿特区和芝加哥惹出过一些事端。这一点值得另文阐述,不过我的总体感觉是,有些管理工作是合理合法的,旨在保障乘客安全,维护公平的竞争环境。另外一些则纯属一些交运公司放出的烟幕弹,它们一直无需面对竞争,用差劲的服务也能混得不错。


    So being a private company, of course, surge pricing is generally about getting more cars on the road for Uber customers. And Uber benefits from this directly (since they take a cut of fare) and indirectly (strengthening the general appeal of their service for drivers and riders). It's a two-sided value proposition that Uber needs to manage: Drivers need to feel like they're getting paid enough and passengers want enough comfort and speed for their dollars. If there's enough demand, Uber succeeds. If not, Uber fails. Personally I use Uber occasionally and mostly for city-to-airport travel in SF and NYC. But back to Sandy....
所以,作为一家私营企业,"峰时价格"主要是为了让Uber的用户在路上能拦到更多的车。而Uber自己则既能从中直接(因为他们能从车费中分成)受益,又能间接获益(提高其服务对司机和乘客的吸引力)。这是一个具有两面性的价值主张,Uber需要好好管理:司机需要觉得付给他们的车费够多,而乘客则要求获得的舒适度和速度物有所值。如果需求足够大,Uber就能成功。否则它就算失败了。我本人经常使用Uber服务,多数是用来在旧金山和纽约叫车从市区去机场。但还是先回过头说说桑迪吧……


    In the storm's wake, Uber NYC implemented a set of decisions meant to increase supply (drivers) to meet demand (passengers). Uber probably didn't have a "what to do in a human tragedy" playbook and instead ran its normal operating procedures. This included putting 2x surge pricing into effect. In response to public outcry over gauging, it continued to pay drivers the 2x but charge passengers 1x, costing the company $100k/day (effectively Uber was subsidizing the marketplace). Then it put the surge back in place, but said it wouldn't take their share of profits -- all money would go to the drivers.
飓风刚过,纽约的Uber就开始执行一套旨在增加供应(司机)以满足需求(乘客)的措施。可能对Uber来说,它就没有一本“人类灾情应急措施”手册。所以灾难当头之际,它还是照老一套办。其中就包括了实行2倍的峰时价格。由于公众对这种漫天要价的做法大为不满,公司只得一边照旧付给司机2倍报酬,一边只收乘客1倍的费用,致使公司每天要多花10万美元的成本(实际上也就是补贴了市场)。随后它又恢复了峰时价格,不过表示不会拿自己那份分成——多收的钱也都归司机。


    In response to the criticism, Uber published lengthy posts explaining the dynamics of marketplaces. Right idea, but oh so wrong. While the logic was true, the humanity was missing. The average person just heard that Uber was charging New Yorkers more post-hurricane. I used to see Google make this mistake frequently in our communications on controversial topics. Data and logic told us we were correct and we'd just keep showing you more of it, or describing our thought process. We greeted emotion with facts. In the face of emotion, data can be a foreign language. It doesn't matter how loudly and slowly you say it, some people don't understand. In fact, all you're doing is pissing them off.
面对一片声讨,Uber发表了长篇累牍的博文,用来阐释市场机制。这种观念本身不赖,但在此情此景下,其实错得离谱。它的逻辑也许是正确的,但却丢掉了人文关怀。普通人听到的只是飓风过后Uber向纽约市民漫天要价。我发现,以前在我和谷歌就有争议的话题进行沟通时,谷歌也常犯这种错误。谷歌的态度是:数据和逻辑表明我们没错,所以我们就再多为你提供些数据和逻辑,或是描述我们的思路。我们是用事实来面对情感的。可是,在情感面前,数据是无法与之沟通的。不管说得多大声,多缓慢,有些人就是不愿意领会。实际上,这么做只会惹得他们火冒三丈。


    The people who are piling on Uber are largely doing it from (a) sunny West Coast and (b) imagining that some unethical CEO/Investors are pulling strings to exploit NYC. Knowing members of the Uber team I'm comfortable asserting that you basically have good folks, working under incredible circumstances, trying to make the right call for a startup that, no matter how much good press and fortune they've had, is still a small business growing and evolving its model.
目前对Uber大加挞伐的人主要是来自(a)阳光明媚的西海岸以及(b)认为一些无良的首席执行官/投资人正在幕后操纵,乘人之危盘剥纽约人。作为了解Uber团队的人,我可以肯定地说,他们是一群不错的人,工作环境艰苦,正在努力使叫车服务更准确便捷。对这样一家初创企业来说,不管他们获得了多少正面报道或良好机遇,他们仍是一家正在成长、不断改良业务模式的小公司。


    Assume that coming out of this past week, the Uber team will write a "what to do in disasters" playbook. Here's what I bet it includes:
假如总结过去这一周里的话,Uber的团队会写这么一本“灾害应急措施大全”手册。我敢说这本手册会包含如下内容:


    • Local GMs can work with HQ to declare "emergency:" During this time, Uber won't collect money on a passenger fare, effectively helping to increase supply of drivers by giving back to the passenger community which supports the company during the 99.9% of the year which is normal.
分公司总经理可与总部同步宣布“紧急情况”:在此期间,Uber不会再收乘客的钱,通过回馈那些平时绝大多数时候支持公司的乘客,能有效增加司机人数。


    • App can show messages next to surge pricing info: Imagine how much clearer it would be if next to the "Surge Pricing in Effect 2x" it said "To those impacted by Sandy: We need to charge more to meet demand during this challenging time in order to get more Uber drivers on the road. Uber will not take any fees. All proceeds go to the drivers. We hope you are able to stay safe, dry and get to your destination quickly."
应用可在“峰时价格”信息之后显示附加信息:设想一下,如果在"峰时价格,费用翻番"后出现这样一条信息,情况就会明朗得多——受桑迪影响的人们请注意:在此非常时期,我们需要额外收费以满足需求,这样才能召集更多Uber司机上路。Uber不会收取任何费用。所有收费都将付给司机。我们希望能确保您安全、干爽并快速地抵达目的地。


    • Public Communications Which Leave the Economic Theory for Later: It will have a set of FAQs and better responses which help to put a human face on Uber - not just employees but driver and passenger stories. Now it needs to be careful to do this without blaming the drivers (i.e., "don't look at us, these drivers want more money."
公关至上,经济学理论留待日后再谈:要有一套常用问题和更佳解答,这样才能让Uber呈现有人情味的一面——别光谈自己的员工,也要说说司机和乘客的故事。现在说这话时要加倍小心,别再怪罪司机(比如什么“别光看着我们,是这些司机想多赚点”)。


    I saw some other interesting tweets about allowing the Uber community outside of impacted areas to subsidize surge pricing. And I wondered if sponsors would subsidize. But both of these are kinda red herrings - Uber is going to live and die by the algorithm. Contrast Uber's week with Airbnb, which immediately waived booking fees on tens of thousands of listings in impacted areas. Airbnb had its crisis moment a year ago when someone returned to a trashed apartment. Airbnb's initial response was fact-based (this happens to very few people). Its team soon realized that it wasn't okay to appear they were comfortable that this happens to ANY of their customers and put better messaging, customer support and other assurances in place.
我看到有些有意思的微博称,要让受飓风侵袭以外的Uber群体为峰时价格提供补助。不过我不太相信这些人真的会掏钱。但这些话题都离题甚远——Uber无论生死,靠的都是算法。可以拿Uber过去这一周的表现和公寓交换平台Airbnb公司比比看,对于受灾地区成千上万的订单,后者几乎是第一时间免掉了所有预订费。一年前,Airbnb也碰上了重大危机。当时有个房东回自己公寓才发现,家里已被租客洗劫一空,还遭到大肆破坏。当时Airbnb的第一反应也是基于事实进行回应(也就是碰到这种情况的客户是极少数)。不过其团队很快就意识到,公司表现出"任何客户都会碰到这种情况,所以就能安之若素"的态度十分不妥。他们随后迅速行动起来,提供了更好的沟通信息、客户支持和其他保障条件。
tweet [twiːt] n.&v. 小鸟的啁啾声;(社交网站Twitter上的)微博 [tw]音 "推"
community [kə'mjuːnəti] n.社区;社会;公众;共同体;团体;共享;共有 **社区;群体
subsidize ['sʌbsɪdaɪz] vt.给与补助金或奖助金;贿赂;**补贴
impact ['ɪmpækt] v.冲击;撞击;产生影响 [ɪm]在美音里读[in]
the Uber community outside of impacted areas 受灾区域之外的Uber群体
sponsor ['spɑːnsər] n.保证人;赞助者;发起者;主办者 v.发起;赞助;倡议
kinda ['kaɪndə] adv.有一点;有几分(=kind of)
red herrings 东拉西扯;转移注意力
herring ['herɪŋ] n.青鱼;鲱
contrast ['kɑːntræst] 对比;差别;对照物 对比;反差
waive [weɪv] vt.放弃;不坚持;推迟;搁置
waive booking fees 免掉预订费
trash [træʃ] n.废物;垃圾 vt.废弃;捣毁 **破坏
happen to 碰巧; 发生在…身上; 赶巧; 值;


    Uber just had its trashed apartment moment. I could be wrong, but my guess is they'll do better next time.
而Uber刚好才遇上自己的"公寓被捣毁危机"。我也可能会猜错,不过我想他们下次碰到这种情况会做得更好。
I could be wrong 也许我是错的


    Hunter Walk is a director of product management at Google.
汉特•沃尔克是谷歌公司的产品管理总监。
director [də'rektər] n.董事;经理;导演;主管,总监;指挥者
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