泡沫破裂的经济学原理

 

The economics of a bubble burst
Source: Anonymous mail forwards

曾经有个小岛国，领土就是这个小岛本身。流通的货币只有2元，因为只有2枚1元硬币在这个岛国流通。

1）这个岛上只有3名市民，甲拥有这座岛，乙和丙各有一枚1元硬币。

2）乙决定用1元钱向甲买下岛，那么这样的话甲和丙就各有一枚1元硬币而乙就得到了一个价值1元的小岛。

这座小岛的净资产 = 3元。

3）丙想既然这个岛国只有一个岛，而且岛是非生产资产，这个岛一定会升值。于是，丙向甲借了1元钱并合着他自己的1元钱向乙把岛买了下来。

甲借了一元钱给丙，所以他的净资产是1元

乙卖掉了他的岛得到了2元钱，因此他的净资产是2元。

丙得到了价值2元的岛但是欠了甲一元钱，那么他的净资产就是1元。

这个岛国的净资产 = 4元

4）甲看到了他曾经拥有的岛升值了，非常后悔把它卖掉。幸运的是他借了丙1元。然后他又向乙借了2元，于是用3元钱向丙把岛买了下来。他用借到的2元现金并消除了丙欠他的1元债务向丙买下了小岛。

乙借了2元给甲，因此他的净资产是2元。

丙现在有了2个1元硬币，他的净资产还是2元。

这个国家的净资产 = 5元。 泡沫逐渐建立起来。

5）乙看到土地的价值不断上升，他也想拥有土地。因此他用4元钱向甲买下了土地，付款是向丙借了2元并解除了甲向他借的2元。

结果，甲不仅清除了债务还得到了2枚硬币。他的净资产是2元。

乙得到了价值4元的土地但他还欠丙2元，他的净资产就是2元。

丙借了2元给乙，因此他的净资产就是2元。

这个岛国的净资产 = 6元。尽管如此，这个岛国还只有一个岛和2元货币流通。

6）每个人都赚到了钱，大家都很开心，富足。

7）一天，丙有了个不好的想法,"呃，如果土地不升值了，乙怎么才能把钱还给我呢？毕竟流通中的只有2元钱，我想毕竟乙拥有的那块地最多只值1元钱。

这时候甲也是这么想的。

8）大家都不想买地了。最后，甲有2元钱，他的净资产是2元。乙欠丙2元钱乙有土地，可是他曾经认为价值4元的土地现在却只值1元钱。他的净资产变成了1元。

丙借了乙2元钱，但是这是个烂债。虽然他的净资产是2元，但是他的心里却十分忐忑。

这个岛国的净资产又变成了3元。

当然在泡沫破灭之前，乙还认为他的土地价值4元。他的净资产还是2元，他的心也很忐忑不安。

这个岛国的净资产又变成了3元。

9）乙别无选择只能宣告破产。丙只好放弃乙欠他的烂债，作为回报他得到了现在仅价值1元的土地。

甲拥有2枚硬币，他的净资产是2元。乙破产了，他的净资产为1.（乙失去了一切）丙别无选择得到了仅价值1元的土地。（丙损失了1元）这个岛国的进价值=3.

****故事结束****

不管怎么说，这只是一次财产的重新分配。甲赢了，乙输了，丙幸免于难。

值得注意的几点：

（1）一个国家的泡沫形成的时候，个人之间的债务也正在形成。

（2）这个故事中的岛屿是一个没有其他国家也没有外债的封闭系统。资产的价值只能用岛国自身的货币来计算，因此没有净损失。

（3）当泡沫破裂的时候就有可能产生一个过阻尼系统，意思就是土地的价值不会跌到小于1元钱。

（4）当泡沫破裂的时候，有现金的人就是赢家。有土地或者借债给别人的人就是输家。资产会缩减，甚至最坏的情况下，他们会破产。

（5）如果有第四个市民有一枚硬币或者是有另外一块土地，他不参与这个游戏。最后，他不赢也不输。在这个过程中他只会看到他的钱或者土地升值或者贬值。

（6）当泡沫上升的时候，大家都赚钱。

（7）如果你够聪明知道你正处于泡沫中，那么很值得你去借钱（就像甲）去参加游戏。但是你必须知道什么时候该把所有的东西都变成现金。

（8）上述不仅适用于土地也适用于股票。

（9）土地或者股票的实际价值大部分取决于心理状态。

 

The economics of a bubble burst

Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollar as there were only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.

1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B and C each owned 1 dollar.

2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So, A and C now each own 1 dollar while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.
The net asset of the country = 3 dollar.

3) C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country and land is non productive asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he borrowed 1 dollar from A and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the land from B for 2 dollar.
A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.
B sold his land and got 2 dollar, so his net asset is 2 dollar.
C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollar but with his 1 dollar debt to A, his net asset is 1 dollar.

The net asset of the country = 4 dollar.

4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regretted selling it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2 dollar from B and and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollar. The payment is by 2 dollar cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollar loan to C.
As a result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollar. But since he owed B 2 dollar, his net asset is 1 dollar.

B loaned 2 dollar to A. So his net asset is 2 dollar.
C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollar.
The net asset of the country = 5 dollar. A bubble is building up.

(5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the land. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollar. The payment is by borrowing 2 dollar from C and cancellation of his 2 dollar loan to A.

As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net asset is 2 dollar.
B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollar but since he has a debt of 2 dollar with C, his net Asset is 2 dollar.
C loaned 2 dollar to B, so his net asset is 2 dollar.

The net asset of the country = 6 dollar. Even though, the country has only one piece of land and 2 Dollar in circulation.

(6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.

(7) One day an evil thought came to C's mind. "Hey, what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. There is only 2 dollar in circulation, I think after all the land that B owns is worth at most 1 dollar only."
A also thought the same by now.

(8) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore. In the end, A owns the 2 dollar coins, his net asset is 2 dollar. B owed C 2 dollar and the land he owned which he thought worth 4 dollar is now 1 dollar. His net asset become -1 dollar.

C has a loan of 2 dollar to B. But it is a bad debt. Although his net asset is still 2 dollar, his Heart is palpitating.

The net asset of the country = 3 dollar again.

Of course, before the bubble burst B thought his land worth 4 dollar. His net asset is still 2 dollar, his heart is palpitating.

The net asset of the country = 3 dollar again.

(9) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2 dollar bad debt to B but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1 dollar now.

A owns the 2 coins, his net asset is 2 dollar. B is bankrupt, his net asset is 0 dollar. ( B lost everything ) C got no choice but end up with a land worth only 1 dollar (C lost one dollar) The net asset of the country = 3 dollar.

******* Story Ends *******

There is however a redistribution of wealth. A is the winner, B is the loser, C is lucky that he is spared.

A few points worth noting -

(1) When a bubble is building up, the debt of individual in a country to one another is also building up.
(2) This story of the island is a close system whereby there is no other country and hence no foreign debt. The worth of the asset can
only be calculated using the island's own currency. Hence, there is no net loss.
(3) An overdamped system is assumed when the bubble burst, meaning the land's value did not go down to below 1 dollar.
(4) When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows having the land or extending loan to others are the loser. The asset could shrink or in worst case, they go bankrupt.
(5) If there is another citizen D either holding a dollar or another piece of land but refrain to take part in the game. At the end of the day, he will neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land go up and down like a see saw.
(6) When the bubble was in the growing phase, everybody made money.
(7) If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is worthwhile to borrow money (like A ) and take part in the game. But you must know when you should change everything back to cash.
(8) In addition of land, the above applies to stocks as well.
(9) The actual worth of land or stocks depend largely on psychology.