15、NFL Draft Analysis: Evaluating Picks, Trades, and Team Performance

NFL Draft Analysis: Evaluating Picks, Trades, and Team Performance

1. Estimating Draft Pick Values

We first calculated the estimated value for each draft pick. Here is the resulting table:

# A tibble: 6 × 4
   Pick mean_DrAV roll_DrAV fitted_DrAV
  <int>     <dbl>     <dbl>       <dbl>
1     1      47.6      39.0        31.4
2     2      39.8      37.6        31.1
3     3      44.4      37.9        30.8
4     4      31.2      37.0        30.5
5     5      43.6      37.6        30.2
6     6      34.7      37.4        29.9

However, due to the two - parameter nature of the exponential regression, this fit likely underestimates the value of the pick at the very beginning of the draft. Different model types