41 Too Little for Global Warming

 

Too Little for Global Warming

太少的全球变暖

Oil and gas will run out too fast for doomsday global warming scenarios to materialize, according to a controversial new analysis presented this week at the University of Uppsala in Sweden. The autheors warn that all the fuel will be burnt before there is enough carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to realize predictions of melting ice caps and searing temperatures. Defending their predictions, scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say they considered a range of estimates of oil and gas reserves, and point out that coal-burning could easily make the shortfall. But all agree that burning coal would be even worse for the planet.

石油和天然气将跑太快末日全球变暖的情况下实现，根据一项新的分析发表在这周的乌普萨拉大学在瑞典。该autheors警告说，所有的燃料都将被烧毁之前有足够的大气层中的二氧化碳，实现预测的冰盖融化和灼热的温度。捍卫他们的预测，科学家从政府间气候变化问题研究小组说，他们认为一系列的石油和天然气储备的估计，并指出，燃煤可以很容易地使短缺。但所有人都同意燃烧煤会更糟的。

The IPCC’s predictions of global meltdown pushed forward the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an agreement obliging signatory nations to cut CO2 emissions.The IPCC considered a range of future scenarios, from unlimited burning of fossil-fuels to a fast transition towards greener energy sources. But geologists Anders Sivertsson, Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campbell of Uppsala University say there is not enough oil and gas left even the most conservative of the 40 IPCC scenarios to come to pass.

警监会的预测全球危机推动1997京都协议，协议的签署国减少二氧化碳的排放。委员会审议了一系列未来的情景，从无限燃烧fossil-fuels到快速过渡到绿色能源。但地质学家安德斯sivertsson，谢尔阿利克利特和柯林乌普萨拉大学坎贝尔说没有足够的石油和天然气的左连最保守的40次方案实现。

Although estimates of oil and gas reserves vary widely, the researchers are part of a growing group of experts who believe that oil supplies will peak as soon as 2010, and gas soon after. Their analysis suggests that oil and gas reserves combined amount to the equivalent of about 3,500 billion barrels of oil considerably less than the 5,000 billion barrels estimated in the most optimistic model envisaged by the IPCC. Even the average forecast of about 8,000 billion barrels is more than twice the Swedish estimate of the world’s remaining reserves.

虽然石油和天然气储备的估计有很大的不同，研究人员越来越多的专家相信，石油供应将峰尽快2010，气后很快。他们的分析表明，石油和天然气储量的总和相当于约3500000000000桶石油大大少于5000000000000桶，估计在最乐观的模型设想由警监会。甚至平均预测约8000000000000桶是两倍以上的瑞典估计世界剩余储量。

Nebojsa Nakicenovic, an energy economist at the university of Vienna, Austria who headed the 80-strong IPCC team that produced the forecasts, says the panel’s work still stands. He says they factored in a much broader and internationally accepted range of oil and gas estimates than the “conservative” Swedes.

内博基森诺维奇，能源经济学家维也纳大学，奥地利为首的80-strong警监团队产生的预测，说面板的工作仍然停留。他说他们将在更广泛的和国际公认的石油和天然气估计比“保守”的瑞典人。

Even if oil and gas run out, “there’s a huge amount of coal underground that could be exploited.” He says that burning coal could make the IPCC scenarios come true, but points out that such a switch would be disastrous. Coal is dirtier than oil and gas and produces more co2 for each unit of energy, as well as releasing large amounts of particulates. He says the latest analysis is a “shot across the bows” for policy makers.

即使石油和天然气的跑出去，有大量的煤炭地下，可以利用。”他说，煤的燃烧可以让警监会的情况成真，但指出，这种改变将是灾难性的。煤炭是脏比石油和天然气产生更多的二氧化碳每单位能源，以及释放大量微粒。他说，最新的分析是一个“警告”为政策制定者。