十七周

复习考试,思考人生的意义

基于蒙特卡洛法的规模化电动车有序充放电及负荷预测(Python&Matlab实现)内容概要:本文围绕“基于蒙特卡洛法的规模化电动车有序充放电及负荷预测”展开,结合Python和Matlab编程实现,重点研究大规模电动汽车在电网中的充放电行为建模与负荷预测方法。通过蒙特卡洛模拟技术,对电动车用户的出行规律、充电需求、接入时间与电量消耗等不确定性因素进行统计建模,进而实现有序充放电策略的优化设计与未来负荷曲线的精准预测。文中提供了完整的算法流程与代码实现,涵盖数据采样、概率分布拟合、充电负荷聚合、场景仿真及结果可视化等关键环节,有效支撑电网侧对电动车负荷的科学管理与调度决策。; 适合人群:具备一定电力系统基础知识和编程能力(Python/Matlab),从事新能源、智能电网、交通电气化等相关领域研究的研究生、科研人员及工程技术人员。; 使用场景及目标:①研究大规模电动车接入对配电网负荷特性的影响;②设计有序充电策略以平抑负荷波动;③实现基于概率模拟的短期或长期负荷预测;④为电网规划、储能配置与需求响应提供数据支持和技术方案。; 阅读建议:建议结合文中提供的代码实例,逐步运行并理解蒙特卡洛模拟的实现逻辑,重点关注输入参数的概率分布设定与多场景仿真的聚合方法,同时可扩展加入分时电价、用户行为偏好等实际约束条件以提升模型实用性。
declare v_1 date := TO_DATE('20250301', 'YYYYMMDD'); v_start date; v_end date := trunc(sysdate); v_current date; v_sql varchar2(32767); begin v_start :=trunc(v_1); for i in 0..(v_end-v_start) loop v_current := v_start+i; v_sql := 'merge into PURE_SPREAD dest using (with t1 as (SELECT a.*,CASE WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''tz'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE + 3 / 24 WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''ke'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE + 3 / 24 WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''ci'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''ph'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE + 8 / 24 END AS NEW_DATE FROM LOAN_BORROW_INFO_TEST a WHERE a.COUNTRY_CODE <> ''gh'' AND a.RISK_SERIAL_NO <> ''googleplay'' AND a.ARCHIVED=1 and a.IN_FORCE_DATE is not null), t2 as (select distinct phone,country_code,NEW_DATE from t1 where TRUNC(NEW_DATE)=TO_DATE(''' || TO_CHAR(v_current, 'YYYYMMDD') || ''', ''YYYYMMDD'') and user_type_product=0), t3 as ( select t1.NEW_DATE,t1.ACTUAL_REPAYMENT_AMOUNT,t1.ACTUAL_AMOUNT,t1.state from t2 left join t1 on t2.phone=t1.phone and t2.country_code=t1.country_code and t1.NEW_DATE>=t2.NEW_DATE and t1.new_date is not null), t4 as( select week_num,TO_DATE(''' || TO_CHAR(v_current, 'YYYYMMDD') || ''', ''YYYYMMDD'') as pure_in_force_date,sum(rs-rl)/100 AS Spread from (SELECT case when state !=6 then ACTUAL_REPAYMENT_AMOUNT-ACTUAL_AMOUNT else 0 end as rs, case when state = 6 then ACTUAL_AMOUNT else 0 end as rl, TRUNC((NEW_DATE - MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER ()) / 7)+1 AS week_num, MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER () + TRUNC((NEW_DATE - MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER ()) / 7) * 7 AS week_start, MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER () + TRUNC((NEW_DATE - MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER ()) / 7) * 7 + 6 AS week_end FROM t3 WHERE NEW_DATE BETWEEN TO_DATE("2025-03-01", "YYYY-MM-DD") AND TRUNC(ADD_MONTHS(SYSDATE, 12), "YYYY") - 1) GROUP BY week_num ORDER BY week_num) select * from t4 pivot(sum(round(Spread,6)) for week_num IN (1 AS "第一", 2 AS "第二", 3 AS "第三", 4 AS "第四", 5 AS "第五", 6 AS "第六", 7 AS "第七", 8 AS "第八", 9 AS "第九", 10 AS "第十", 11 AS "第十一", 12 AS "第十二", 13 AS "第十三", 14 AS "第十四", 15 AS "第十五", 16 AS "第十六", 17 AS "第十七", 18 AS "第十八", 19 AS "第十九", 20 AS "第二十", 21 AS "第二十一", 22 AS "第二十二", 23 AS "第二十三", 24 AS "第二十四", 25 AS "第二十五", 26 AS "第二十六", 27 AS "第二十七", 28 AS "第二十八", 29 AS "第二十九", 30 AS "第三十", 31 AS "第三十一", 32 AS "第三十二", 33 AS "第三十三", 34 AS "第三十四", 35 AS "第三十五", 36 AS "第三十六", 37 AS "第三十七", 38 AS "第三十八", 39 AS "第三十九", 40 AS "第四十", 41 AS "第四十一", 42 AS "第四十二", 43 AS "第四十三"))) src on ( dest.pure_in_force_date= src.pure_in_force_date ) WHEN MATCHED THEN UPDATE SET dest."第一" = src."第一",dest."第二" = src."第二",dest."第三" = src."第三",dest."第四" = src."第四",dest."第五" = src."第五",dest."第六" = src."第六",dest."第七" = src."第七",dest."第八" = src."第八",dest."第九" = src."第九",dest."第十" = src."第十",dest."第十一" = src."第十一",dest."第十二" = src."第十二",dest."第十三" = src."第十三",dest."第十四" = src."第十四",dest."第十五" = src."第十五",dest."第十六" = src."第十六",dest."第十七" = src."第十七",dest."第十八" = src."第十八",dest."第十九" = src."第十九",dest."第二十" = src."第二十",dest."第二十一" = src."第二十一",dest."第二十二" = src."第二十二",dest."第二十三" = src."第二十三",dest."第二十四" = src."第二十四",dest."第二十五" = src."第二十五",dest."第二十六" = src."第二十六",dest."第二十七" = src."第二十七",dest."第二十八" = src."第二十八",dest."第二十九" = src."第二十九",dest."第三十" = src."第三十",dest."第三十一" = src."第三十一",dest."第三十二" = src."第三十二",dest."第三十三" = src."第三十三",dest."第三十四" = src."第三十四",dest."第三十五" = src."第三十五",dest."第三十六" = src."第三十六",dest."第三十七" = src."第三十七",dest."第三十八" = src."第三十八",dest."第三十九" = src."第三十九",dest."第四十" = src."第四十",dest."第四十一" = src."第四十一",dest."第四十二" = src."第四十二",dest."第四十三" = src."第四十三" WHEN NOT MATCHED THEN INSERT ( pure_in_force_date, "第一","第二","第三","第四","第五","第六","第七","第八","第九","第十","第十一","第十二","第十三","第十四","第十五","第十六","第十七","第十八","第十九","第二十","第二十一","第二十二","第二十三","第二十四","第二十五","第二十六","第二十七","第二十八","第二十九","第三十","第三十一","第三十二","第三十三","第三十四","第三十五","第三十六","第三十七","第三十八","第三十九","第四十","第四十一","第四十二","第四十三" ) VALUES ( src.pure_in_force_date, src."第一",src."第二",src."第三",src."第四",src."第五",src."第六",src."第七",src."第八",src."第九",src."第十",src."第十一",src."第十二",src."第十三",src."第十四",src."第十五",src."第十六",src."第十七",src."第十八",src."第十九",src."第二十",src."第二十一",src."第二十二",src."第二十三",src."第二十四",src."第二十五",src."第二十六",src."第二十七",src."第二十八",src."第二十九",src."第三十",src."第三十一",src."第三十二",src."第三十三",src."第三十四",src."第三十五",src."第三十六",src."第三十七",src."第三十八",src."第三十九",src."第四十",src."第四十一",src."第四十二",src."第四十三" )' ; EXECUTE IMMEDIATE v_sql; END LOOP; end; declare v_1 date := TO_DATE('20250301', 'YYYYMMDD'); v_start date; v_end date := trunc(sysdate); v_current date; v_sql varchar2(32767); begin v_start :=trunc(v_1); for i in 0..(v_end-v_start) loop v_current := v_start+i; v_sql := 'merge into PURE_SPREAD dest using (with t1 as (SELECT a.*,CASE WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''tz'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE + 3 / 24 WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''ke'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE + 3 / 24 WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''ci'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''ph'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE + 8 / 24 END AS NEW_DATE FROM LOAN_BORROW_INFO_TEST a WHERE a.COUNTRY_CODE <> ''gh'' AND a.RISK_SERIAL_NO <> ''googleplay'' AND a.ARCHIVED=1 and a.IN_FORCE_DATE is not null), t2 as (select distinct phone,country_code,NEW_DATE from t1 where TRUNC(NEW_DATE)=TO_DATE(''' || TO_CHAR(v_current, 'YYYYMMDD') || ''', ''YYYYMMDD'') and user_type_product=0), t3 as ( select t1.NEW_DATE,t1.ACTUAL_REPAYMENT_AMOUNT,t1.ACTUAL_AMOUNT,t1.state from t2 left join t1 on t2.phone=t1.phone and t2.country_code=t1.country_code and t1.NEW_DATE>=t2.NEW_DATE and t1.new_date is not null), t4 as( select week_num,TO_DATE(''' || TO_CHAR(v_current, 'YYYYMMDD') || ''', ''YYYYMMDD'') as pure_in_force_date,sum(rs-rl)/100 AS Spread from (SELECT case when state !=6 then ACTUAL_REPAYMENT_AMOUNT-ACTUAL_AMOUNT else 0 end as rs, case when state = 6 then ACTUAL_AMOUNT else 0 end as rl, TRUNC((NEW_DATE - MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER ()) / 7)+1 AS week_num, MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER () + TRUNC((NEW_DATE - MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER ()) / 7) * 7 AS week_start, MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER () + TRUNC((NEW_DATE - MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER ()) / 7) * 7 + 6 AS week_end FROM t3 WHERE NEW_DATE BETWEEN TO_DATE("2025-03-01", "YYYY-MM-DD") AND TRUNC(ADD_MONTHS(SYSDATE, 12), "YYYY") - 1) GROUP BY week_num ORDER BY week_num) select * from t4 pivot(sum(round(Spread,6)) for week_num IN (1 AS "第一", 2 AS "第二", 3 AS "第三", 4 AS "第四", 5 AS "第五", 6 AS "第六", 7 AS "第七", 8 AS "第八", 9 AS "第九", 10 AS "第十", 11 AS "第十一", 12 AS "第十二", 13 AS "第十三", 14 AS "第十四", 15 AS "第十五", 16 AS "第十六", 17 AS "第十七", 18 AS "第十八", 19 AS "第十九", 20 AS "第二十", 21 AS "第二十一", 22 AS "第二十二", 23 AS "第二十三", 24 AS "第二十四", 25 AS "第二十五", 26 AS "第二十六", 27 AS "第二十七", 28 AS "第二十八", 29 AS "第二十九", 30 AS "第三十", 31 AS "第三十一", 32 AS "第三十二", 33 AS "第三十三", 34 AS "第三十四", 35 AS "第三十五", 36 AS "第三十六", 37 AS "第三十七", 38 AS "第三十八", 39 AS "第三十九", 40 AS "第四十", 41 AS "第四十一", 42 AS "第四十二", 43 AS "第四十三"))) src on ( dest.pure_in_force_date= src.pure_in_force_date ) WHEN MATCHED THEN UPDATE SET dest."第一" = src."第一",dest."第二" = src."第二",dest."第三" = src."第三",dest."第四" = src."第四",dest."第五" = src."第五",dest."第六" = src."第六",dest."第七" = src."第七",dest."第八" = src."第八",dest."第九" = src."第九",dest."第十" = src."第十",dest."第十一" = src."第十一",dest."第十二" = src."第十二",dest."第十三" = src."第十三",dest."第十四" = src."第十四",dest."第十五" = src."第十五",dest."第十六" = src."第十六",dest."第十七" = src."第十七",dest."第十八" = src."第十八",dest."第十九" = src."第十九",dest."第二十" = src."第二十",dest."第二十一" = src."第二十一",dest."第二十二" = src."第二十二",dest."第二十三" = src."第二十三",dest."第二十四" = src."第二十四",dest."第二十五" = src."第二十五",dest."第二十六" = src."第二十六",dest."第二十七" = src."第二十七",dest."第二十八" = src."第二十八",dest."第二十九" = src."第二十九",dest."第三十" = src."第三十",dest."第三十一" = src."第三十一",dest."第三十二" = src."第三十二",dest."第三十三" = src."第三十三",dest."第三十四" = src."第三十四",dest."第三十五" = src."第三十五",dest."第三十六" = src."第三十六",dest."第三十七" = src."第三十七",dest."第三十八" = src."第三十八",dest."第三十九" = src."第三十九",dest."第四十" = src."第四十",dest."第四十一" = src."第四十一",dest."第四十二" = src."第四十二",dest."第四十三" = src."第四十三" WHEN NOT MATCHED THEN INSERT ( pure_in_force_date, "第一","第二","第三","第四","第五","第六","第七","第八","第九","第十","第十一","第十二","第十三","第十四","第十五","第十六","第十七","第十八","第十九","第二十","第二十一","第二十二","第二十三","第二十四","第二十五","第二十六","第二十七","第二十八","第二十九","第三十","第三十一","第三十二","第三十三","第三十四","第三十五","第三十六","第三十七","第三十八","第三十九","第四十","第四十一","第四十二","第四十三" ) VALUES ( src.pure_in_force_date, src."第一",src."第二",src."第三",src."第四",src."第五",src."第六",src."第七",src."第八",src."第九",src."第十",src."第十一",src."第十二",src."第十三",src."第十四",src."第十五",src."第十六",src."第十七",src."第十八",src."第十九",src."第二十",src."第二十一",src."第二十二",src."第二十三",src."第二十四",src."第二十五",src."第二十六",src."第二十七",src."第二十八",src."第二十九",src."第三十",src."第三十一",src."第三十二",src."第三十三",src."第三十四",src."第三十五",src."第三十六",src."第三十七",src."第三十八",src."第三十九",src."第四十",src."第四十一",src."第四十二",src."第四十三" )' ; EXECUTE IMMEDIATE v_sql; END LOOP; end; declare v_1 date := TO_DATE('20250301', 'YYYYMMDD'); v_start date; v_end date := trunc(sysdate); v_current date; v_sql varchar2(32767); begin v_start :=trunc(v_1); for i in 0..(v_end-v_start) loop v_current := v_start+i; v_sql := 'merge into PURE_SPREAD dest using (with t1 as (SELECT a.*,CASE WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''tz'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE + 3 / 24 WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''ke'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE + 3 / 24 WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''ci'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE WHEN a.COUNTRY_CODE = ''ph'' THEN a.IN_FORCE_DATE + 8 / 24 END AS NEW_DATE FROM LOAN_BORROW_INFO_TEST a WHERE a.COUNTRY_CODE <> ''gh'' AND a.RISK_SERIAL_NO <> ''googleplay'' AND a.ARCHIVED=1 and a.IN_FORCE_DATE is not null), t2 as (select distinct phone,country_code,NEW_DATE from t1 where TRUNC(NEW_DATE)=TO_DATE(''' || TO_CHAR(v_current, 'YYYYMMDD') || ''', ''YYYYMMDD'') and user_type_product=0), t3 as ( select t1.NEW_DATE,t1.ACTUAL_REPAYMENT_AMOUNT,t1.ACTUAL_AMOUNT,t1.state from t2 left join t1 on t2.phone=t1.phone and t2.country_code=t1.country_code and t1.NEW_DATE>=t2.NEW_DATE and t1.new_date is not null), t4 as( select week_num,TO_DATE(''' || TO_CHAR(v_current, 'YYYYMMDD') || ''', ''YYYYMMDD'') as pure_in_force_date,sum(rs-rl)/100 AS Spread from (SELECT case when state !=6 then ACTUAL_REPAYMENT_AMOUNT-ACTUAL_AMOUNT else 0 end as rs, case when state = 6 then ACTUAL_AMOUNT else 0 end as rl, TRUNC((NEW_DATE - MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER ()) / 7)+1 AS week_num, MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER () + TRUNC((NEW_DATE - MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER ()) / 7) * 7 AS week_start, MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER () + TRUNC((NEW_DATE - MIN(NEW_DATE) OVER ()) / 7) * 7 + 6 AS week_end FROM t3 WHERE NEW_DATE BETWEEN TO_DATE("2025-03-01", "YYYY-MM-DD") AND TRUNC(ADD_MONTHS(SYSDATE, 12), "YYYY") - 1) GROUP BY week_num ORDER BY week_num) select * from t4 pivot(sum(round(Spread,6)) for week_num IN (1 AS "第一", 2 AS "第二", 3 AS "第三", 4 AS "第四", 5 AS "第五", 6 AS "第六", 7 AS "第七", 8 AS "第八", 9 AS "第九", 10 AS "第十", 11 AS "第十一", 12 AS "第十二", 13 AS "第十三", 14 AS "第十四", 15 AS "第十五", 16 AS "第十六", 17 AS "第十七", 18 AS "第十八", 19 AS "第十九", 20 AS "第二十", 21 AS "第二十一", 22 AS "第二十二", 23 AS "第二十三", 24 AS "第二十四", 25 AS "第二十五", 26 AS "第二十六", 27 AS "第二十七", 28 AS "第二十八", 29 AS "第二十九", 30 AS "第三十", 31 AS "第三十一", 32 AS "第三十二", 33 AS "第三十三", 34 AS "第三十四", 35 AS "第三十五", 36 AS "第三十六", 37 AS "第三十七", 38 AS "第三十八", 39 AS "第三十九", 40 AS "第四十", 41 AS "第四十一", 42 AS "第四十二", 43 AS "第四十三"))) src on ( dest.pure_in_force_date= src.pure_in_force_date ) WHEN MATCHED THEN UPDATE SET dest."第一" = src."第一",dest."第二" = src."第二",dest."第三" = src."第三",dest."第四" = src."第四",dest."第五" = src."第五",dest."第六" = src."第六",dest."第七" = src."第七",dest."第八" = src."第八",dest."第九" = src."第九",dest."第十" = src."第十",dest."第十一" = src."第十一",dest."第十二" = src."第十二",dest."第十三" = src."第十三",dest."第十四" = src."第十四",dest."第十五" = src."第十五",dest."第十六" = src."第十六",dest."第十七" = src."第十七",dest."第十八" = src."第十八",dest."第十九" = src."第十九",dest."第二十" = src."第二十",dest."第二十一" = src."第二十一",dest."第二十二" = src."第二十二",dest."第二十三" = src."第二十三",dest."第二十四" = src."第二十四",dest."第二十五" = src."第二十五",dest."第二十六" = src."第二十六",dest."第二十七" = src."第二十七",dest."第二十八" = src."第二十八",dest."第二十九" = src."第二十九",dest."第三十" = src."第三十",dest."第三十一" = src."第三十一",dest."第三十二" = src."第三十二",dest."第三十三" = src."第三十三",dest."第三十四" = src."第三十四",dest."第三十五" = src."第三十五",dest."第三十六" = src."第三十六",dest."第三十七" = src."第三十七",dest."第三十八" = src."第三十八",dest."第三十九" = src."第三十九",dest."第四十" = src."第四十",dest."第四十一" = src."第四十一",dest."第四十二" = src."第四十二",dest."第四十三" = src."第四十三" WHEN NOT MATCHED THEN INSERT ( pure_in_force_date, "第一","第二","第三","第四","第五","第六","第七","第八","第九","第十","第十一","第十二","第十三","第十四","第十五","第十六","第十七","第十八","第十九","第二十","第二十一","第二十二","第二十三","第二十四","第二十五","第二十六","第二十七","第二十八","第二十九","第三十","第三十一","第三十二","第三十三","第三十四","第三十五","第三十六","第三十七","第三十八","第三十九","第四十","第四十一","第四十二","第四十三" ) VALUES ( src.pure_in_force_date, src."第一",src."第二",src."第三",src."第四",src."第五",src."第六",src."第七",src."第八",src."第九",src."第十",src."第十一",src."第十二",src."第十三",src."第十四",src."第十五",src."第十六",src."第十七",src."第十八",src."第十九",src."第二十",src."第二十一",src."第二十二",src."第二十三",src."第二十四",src."第二十五",src."第二十六",src."第二十七",src."第二十八",src."第二十九",src."第三十",src."第三十一",src."第三十二",src."第三十三",src."第三十四",src."第三十五",src."第三十六",src."第三十七",src."第三十八",src."第三十九",src."第四十",src."第四十一",src."第四十二",src."第四十三" )' ; EXECUTE IMMEDIATE v_sql; END LOOP; end; [42000][904] ORA-00904: "YYYY": 标识符无效 ORA-06512: 在 line 67
06-07
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