Do Large Language Models (LLMs) Understand Chronology?

文章核心总结与翻译

一、主要内容

文章聚焦大语言模型(LLMs)的时间顺序理解能力,通过三类任务(时间排序、条件排序、时代错误检测),评估了GPT-4.1、Claude-3.7 Sonnet(含/不含扩展思维)及GPT-5(不同推理强度)的表现。核心发现包括:列表长度增加时,模型精确匹配率急剧下降但局部排序相关性仍较高;条件排序中过滤步骤是主要瓶颈;时代错误检测是相对简单的任务,但多时间线重叠时性能下降;GPT-5(中/高推理强度)和Claude-3.7(含扩展思维)能显著提升时间推理准确性,实现完美排序和条件过滤。

二、创新点

  1. 聚焦模型已掌握知识的时间推理能力,避免知识缺口干扰,更贴合实际应用场景。
  2. 设计三类梯度难度任务,全面覆盖时间排序、条件筛选+排序、多时间线重叠判断,系统评估时间理解的不同维度。
  3. 验证了“显式推理预算”的有效性,证明扩展思维、可调推理强度等机制能突破模型时间推理瓶颈。
  4. 提出结构化评估框架,结合精确匹配率、秩相关系数等多指标,量化模型时间推理的局部一致性与全局准确性。

三、核心部分翻译(Markdown格式)

Abstract

大语言模型(LLMs)在金融和经济学领域的应用日益广泛,而基于提示词的方法在缓解前瞻偏差时,隐含假设模型能够理解时间顺序。我们通过一系列复杂度递增的时间排序任务,测试了这一基本问题,任务所涉及的事实均是模型在预训

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