基于贾子周期律论的美元霸权宿命预测 Prediction of the Fate of US Dollar Hegemony Based on the Kucius Historical Cycle

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基于贾子周期律论的美元霸权宿命预测

一、贾子周期律论与美元霸权的理论契合

1.1 贾子周期律论的核心逻辑

贾子周期律论（Kucius Historical Cycle Theory）是由 Kucius Teng（贾子・邓）于 2025 年 7 月 6 日提出的重要理论，作为贾子智慧理论体系四大支柱之一，该理论从货币本质与权力关系的角度系统揭示了历史周期律的根源。

贾子周期律论的核心命题是：历史周期律的本质是货币的中心化权力异化。这一理论指出，货币从最初的 "商品价值的等价物" 异化为以信用为锚的权力分配工具，其 "劣性" 本质是权力垄断发行权后的异化结果，而非货币载体本身。

该理论的核心机制表现为 "权力闭环"：形成 "权力→货币→财富" 的单向循环。中心化权力（如国家）垄断货币发行权，将货币从价值尺度和流通媒介异化为财富掠夺工具，导致财富集中、社会撕裂，最终触发秩序崩溃。这一逻辑在历史上表现为 "铸币垄断→货币超发→通胀掠夺→农民起义" 的循环，以及近代 "殖民货币掠夺→本土经济失衡→社会动荡" 的模式。

1.2 美元霸权的本质特征

美元霸权的形成始于 1944 年布雷顿森林体系的确立。在布雷顿森林会议上，44 个国家通过了以 "怀特计划" 为基础的《布雷顿森林协定》，确立了美元与黄金挂钩（35 美元兑 1 盎司黄金）、其他国家货币与美元挂钩的双挂钩体系。这一体系使美元获得了 "黄金等价物" 的地位，成为连接各国货币与黄金的桥梁。

1971 年 8 月 15 日，尼克松政府宣布美元与黄金脱钩，布雷顿森林体系崩溃。随后，美国通过与沙特等产油国达成协议，确立了 "石油美元" 体系，使美元成为全球石油贸易的唯一计价和结算货币。这一转变使美元的发行不再受黄金储备限制，形成了新的霸权基础。

美元霸权的本质特征体现在三个方面：

第一，全球储备货币地位。美元在全球外汇储备中的占比从 1999 年的 71% 逐步下降至 2024 年第一季度的 57.4%，尽管有所下降但仍占据主导地位。截至 2025 年第二季度，美元占比进一步降至 56.32%，连续 11 个季度低于 60%，创 30 年来新低。

第二，贸易结算垄断。在国际贸易结算中，美元仍占据约 47-49% 的份额，远超其他货币。特别是在石油等大宗商品贸易中，美元长期保持垄断地位。然而，这一格局正在发生变化，2025 年全球石油贸易人民币结算占比已突破 8%，沙特对华石油出口中 50% 采用人民币结算。

第三，金融市场控制。美国通过控制 SWIFT 系统、纽约清算所银行同业支付系统（CHIPS）等金融基础设施，实现对全球金融交易的控制。同时，美国利用其庞大的金融市场规模和流动性优势，吸引全球资本流入。

1.3 美元霸权与贾子周期律的对应关系

将美元霸权代入贾子周期律方程，各参数具有明确的现实内涵：

T（美元霸权的存续寿命）：从 1944 年布雷顿森林体系确立至今（2025 年）已有 81 年，根据贾子周期律方程的计算逻辑，美元霸权正处于生命周期的中后期。

β（初始熵增速率）：对应美元霸权初期的制度缺陷矛盾，主要体现为 "特里芬难题"—— 美元作为国际储备货币需要通过美国贸易逆差输出流动性，但长期逆差又会削弱美元信用。这一内在矛盾从布雷顿森林体系时期就已存在。

γ（熵增加速度）：对应美元霸权的制度僵化系数。随着时间推移，美国维护美元霸权的手段日趋固化，包括军事威慑、金融制裁、技术垄断等，这些手段的边际效应递减，同时引发越来越强烈的反制。

λc（崩溃临界熵值）：沿用历史验证值 0.95，代表全球对美元体系信任的极限。当前，随着去美元化进程加速、美国债务危机加剧、地缘政治冲突升级，这一临界值正在逼近。

美元霸权完美体现了贾子周期律中 "中心化权力→货币异化→财富集中→矛盾积累" 的循环逻辑。美国通过垄断全球储备货币发行权，形成了 "美元→全球商品 / 资源定价→财富向美国集中" 的单向闭环，实现对全球财富的收割。这种 "权力→货币→财富" 的单向流动机制，正是贾子周期律揭示的历史周期律的核心驱动力。

二、美元霸权的分阶段熵增分析

2.1 第一阶段（1944-1971 年）：布雷顿森林体系期

这一阶段美元霸权的熵增特征表现为缓慢积累，主要参数特征如下：

β 值较低（约 0.12）：布雷顿森林体系下，美元与黄金挂钩（35 美元 = 1 盎司黄金），货币发行受到黄金储备约束，制度缺陷相对较少。美国在二战后拥有全球 73% 的黄金储备，为美元提供了坚实的信用基础。

γ 值稳定（约 0.003）：制度弹性较高，美国通过马歇尔计划等手段向欧洲输出美元，既满足了全球对美元的需求，又巩固了美元地位。这一时期美国 GDP 占全球比重超过 40%，经济实力强大，制度调整空间较大。

主要熵增事件：

1950 年代朝鲜战争导致美国国际收支恶化，黄金储备开始外流

1959 年第一次美元危机爆发，国际社会对美元信心开始动摇

1960 年罗伯特・特里芬提出 "特里芬难题"，揭示了体系的内在矛盾

1965 年越南战争爆发，财政赤字急剧扩大，黄金储备从 2 万吨锐减至不足 9000 吨

这一阶段的关键特征是，尽管存在特里芬难题等结构性矛盾，但由于美国经济实力强大、黄金储备充足，熵增速度相对缓慢。然而，随着美国海外军事开支增加和国际收支恶化，矛盾逐渐积累，最终导致 1971 年尼克松宣布美元与黄金脱钩，布雷顿森林体系崩溃。

2.2 第二阶段（1971-2008 年）：石油美元期

美元与黄金脱钩后，美国迅速建立了 "石油美元" 体系，这一阶段的熵增特征表现为加速积累：

β 值上升（约 0.2）：脱钩黄金后，美元发行不再受实物约束，美国可以通过印钞机直接获取全球资源，制度缺陷显著增加。同时，石油美元体系虽然解决了美元的信用锚定问题，但也带来了新的矛盾 —— 石油资源的有限性和地缘政治风险。

γ 值显著上升（约 0.008）：制度开始僵化，美国越来越依赖军事力量维护石油美元体系。1975 年，美国与沙特达成协议，确立美元为石油出口唯一计价结算货币。此后，美国通过多次中东战争、军事威慑等手段维护这一体系，路径依赖日益严重。

主要熵增事件：

1973-1974 年第一次石油危机，美国通过外交手段化解，但暴露了对石油依赖的脆弱性

1979-1980 年第二次石油危机，伊朗革命和两伊战争导致油价飙升，美国经济陷入滞胀

1980 年代拉美债务危机，美国通过高利率政策转嫁危机，加剧了南北矛盾

1990-1991 年海湾战争，美国直接军事干预维护石油利益

2003 年伊拉克战争，美国以反恐名义推翻萨达姆政权，实质是维护石油美元体系

这一阶段的关键转折点是 2001 年中国加入 WTO。中国的制造业优势与美国的金融霸权形成互补，中国通过出口积累美元外汇，再购买美债，形成了 "中国生产 - 美国消费" 的共生模式。这一模式在短期内缓解了美元的信用危机，但也埋下了更深的隐患 —— 美国制造业空心化加剧，贸易逆差持续扩大。

2.3 第三阶段（2008 年至今）：去美元化加速期

2008 年金融危机成为美元霸权的重要转折点，标志着熵增进入急剧加速期：

β 值大幅上升（约 0.35）：美国为应对金融危机实施量化宽松政策，美联储资产负债表从 2008 年的 9000 亿美元膨胀至 2022 年峰值的 8.9 万亿美元，14 年间扩张近 10 倍。这种无节制的印钞行为严重透支了美元信用，加速了全球去美元化进程。

γ 值急剧上升（约 0.02）：制度严重僵化，美国维护美元霸权的手段日趋极端。2022 年俄乌冲突后，美国将俄罗斯踢出 SWIFT 系统，冻结俄罗斯央行外汇储备，将美元 "武器化"。这一行为虽然短期内维护了美元地位，但彻底打破了 "外汇储备安全" 的共识，引发全球恐慌性去美元化。

主要熵增事件：

2008-2009 年全球金融危机，雷曼兄弟破产引发连锁反应，美国通过量化宽松转嫁危机

2010-2012 年欧债危机，美国评级机构下调欧洲国家主权信用，美元相对走强

2015 年人民币加入 SDR，IMF 承认人民币的国际储备货币地位

2018 年中美贸易战爆发，中国开始系统性减持美债

2020-2022 年新冠疫情期间，美国实施无限量 QE，美元信用严重受损

2022 年俄乌冲突，美国金融制裁引发全球去美元化浪潮

2023 年金砖国家扩员，新开发银行推出本币结算系统

2024 年沙特、阿联酋等国在石油贸易中增加人民币结算比例

当前熵增水平评估：

根据贾子周期律方程的计算逻辑，结合当前各项指标，美元霸权的熵增已达到临界值的 80% 以上：

美元在全球外汇储备占比降至 56.32%，创 30 年新低

美国国债规模突破 36 万亿美元，占 GDP 比重超过 125%

全球央行连续三年黄金增持量超过 1000 吨

金砖国家本币结算份额从 2% 增至 40%

人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）覆盖 189 个国家，2024 年处理金额 175.5 万亿元

三、美元霸权宿命的短中长期预测

3.1 短期预测（2025-2035 年）：触发事件与初期衰退

3.1.1 关键触发事件

根据贾子周期律方程的动态分析，结合当前国际形势，2025-2035 年期间可能触发美元霸权衰退的关键事件包括：

美国债务危机爆发：美国国债规模已达 36.2 万亿美元，占 GDP 的 123%，2025 年 8 月可能因资金链断裂无法支付账单。美国国会预算办公室预计，2025 年 8 月至 9 月间，美国财政部将面临债务上限违约风险，届时需展期的公共债务规模达 9.3 万亿美元，其中 2.5 万亿美元债务需以显著升高的利率进行再融资。若美债拍卖失败，可能引发全球金融市场恐慌，美元信用体系崩溃。

美联储货币政策失控：2025 年美联储已开始降息周期，9 月将联邦基金利率从 4.25%-4.50% 下调至 4.00%-4.25%。然而，美国面临通胀反弹和经济衰退的双重压力，货币政策陷入两难。若通胀失控或经济硬着陆，将严重损害美元信用。

地缘政治黑天鹅事件：台海、南海等地缘热点可能爆发冲突，美国若直接军事介入，将消耗大量资源，加剧财政危机。同时，冲突可能导致全球供应链断裂，美元贸易结算体系瘫痪。

人民币国际化突破：人民币国际化正在加速，2025 年上半年人民币跨境收付金额达 35 万亿元，同比增长 14%，预计全年突破 70 万亿元。CIPS 系统覆盖 189 个国家和地区，2025 年上半年处理金额 90.19 万亿元，成为全球第二大贸易融资货币。若人民币在国际贸易结算中的份额突破 20%，将对美元形成实质性挑战。

金砖国家去美元化联盟：金砖国家正在推进本币结算体系建设，2025 年 10 月，金砖国家央行联合工作组提交了《BRICS Reserve Digital Gold Proposal》，提出建立由实物黄金储备支持的数字货币。若金砖国家实现本币结算全覆盖，将直接挑战美元在国际贸易中的垄断地位。

3.1.2 初期衰退表现

基于贾子周期律的熵增模型，2025-2035 年美元霸权的初期衰退将呈现以下特征：

美元储备份额加速下降：根据历史趋势和当前去美元化速度，预计美元在全球外汇储备中的占比将从目前的 56.32% 下降至 2035 年的 52% 左右。年均下降约 0.5 个百分点，下降速度是前十年的两倍。

贸易结算地位动摇：美元在全球贸易结算中的占比将从目前的 47% 下降至 40% 左右。人民币结算占比将从目前的 5% 左右上升至 15-20%，欧元维持在 30% 左右，形成 "美元 - 欧元 - 人民币" 三足鼎立格局。

金融市场吸引力下降：外资对美国资产的兴趣显著降低，2025 年第一季度美国 FDI 流入骤降 42%。全球大型投资机构正在减持美国资产，将资金转移至欧洲及新兴市场。

美元指数持续走弱：2025 年以来美元指数已从 109 跌至约 98，下跌近 10%。若美国债务危机爆发，美元指数可能跌破 90，引发全球抛售潮。

3.2 中期预测（2035-2055 年）：渐进式衰落过程

3.2.1 多元货币体系形成

2035-2055 年，国际货币体系将从美元独大向多极化演变，这一过程符合贾子周期律中 "熵增累积→体系重构" 的逻辑：

三极货币体系确立：预计到 2055 年，国际货币体系将形成 "美元、欧元、人民币" 三极格局，三者在全球外汇储备中的占比分别为 35%、21%、19%。美元虽然仍保持第一储备货币地位，但其主导优势将大幅削弱。

区域货币联盟兴起：在三极格局之外，将形成多个区域货币联盟：

东盟国家可能形成以人民币为主导的区域货币体系

非洲国家可能推出统一的非洲货币

拉美国家可能建立以巴西雷亚尔和墨西哥比索为主的南方共同市场货币

中东地区可能形成以石油为锚定物的伊斯兰货币体系

数字货币崛起：央行数字货币（CBDC）将成为国际货币体系的重要组成部分。国际清算银行预测，到 2030 年，30% 的跨境支付将通过数字货币完成。到 2060 年，90% 的央行将推出法定数字货币，SWIFT 系统将被分布式账本技术取代。

3.2.2 美国相对实力下降

根据贾子周期律，货币霸权的衰落与国家综合实力的相对下降密切相关：

经济总量占比下降：美国 GDP 占全球比重已从 2000 年的 31% 降至 2024 年的 25%，预计到 2040 年将降至 20%。按购买力平价计算，美国占比已从 1990 年的 26.12% 降至 2023 年的 15.56%，预计到 2029 年将进一步降至 14.72%。

制造业空心化加剧：美国制造业占 GDP 比重已降至 11% 左右，远低于中国的 28%。美国在半导体生产方面仅占全球 10% 的份额，半导体设备国产化率不足 15%。制造业的衰落削弱了美国的实体经济基础。

科技创新优势缩小：中国在 5G、高铁、新能源、人工智能等领域已经或正在实现超越。美国在 STEM 教育方面的优势正在丧失，学生数学成绩在国际测试中排名下滑。

军事霸权成本过高：美国军费开支占 GDP 比重达 3.5%，全球军事基地维护成本巨大。随着中国、俄罗斯等国军事实力提升，美国维持全球军事霸权的成本越来越高，收益却在下降。

3.3 长期预测（2055 年后）：新秩序的建立

3.3.1 美元霸权的彻底崩溃

根据贾子周期律的终极逻辑，2055 年后美元霸权将彻底崩溃，这一过程将呈现以下特征：

信用体系全面瓦解：随着美国债务危机的反复爆发、通胀失控、经济衰退，美元的信用基础将彻底崩塌。各国央行将大规模抛售美元资产，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比可能降至 20% 以下。

贸易结算体系重构：美元将失去在国际贸易中的主导地位，被多种货币和数字货币取代。大宗商品交易将采用多元化的定价和结算体系，不再依赖美元。

金融市场边缘化：纽约作为全球金融中心的地位将被上海、香港、新加坡等城市取代。美国金融市场的流动性优势将不复存在，国际资本将流向新兴市场。

地缘政治格局重塑：美元霸权的崩溃将导致美国全球影响力急剧下降，单极世界格局终结，多极化成为不可逆转的趋势。美国将被迫收缩全球战略，专注于本土发展。

3.3.2 新价值体系的诞生

贾子周期律论提出的 GG3M"三非三共" 架构将成为新价值体系的理论基础：

"三非" 原则的实现：

非中心化：货币发行权不再由单一国家垄断，而是通过分布式网络实现

非垄断：打破任何形式的货币垄断，允许多种货币并存竞争

非暴力：通过市场机制而非军事手段维护货币秩序

"三共" 原则的落实：

共创造：价值创造回归劳动本质，通过智能合约实现按劳分配

共分享：资源分配去中心化，通过区块链技术实现公平分配

共治理：建立全球货币治理体系，所有参与者共同制定规则

技术驱动的价值互联网：

区块链技术将彻底改变价值传递方式，实现点对点的价值交换

人工智能将用于价值评估和资源配置，提高效率和公平性

物联网技术将实现物理世界与数字世界的价值互通

量子计算将为加密货币提供更安全的技术保障

新的国际货币体系特征：

多极化：美元、欧元、人民币等主权货币与数字货币并存

去中心化：没有单一的中心货币，各种货币根据市场需求自由流通

智能化：货币的发行、流通、监管都由智能合约自动执行

普惠性：所有人都能平等地参与价值创造和分配

四、美元霸权崩溃的触发机制与渐进路径

4.1 崩溃触发机制分析

4.1.1 金融市场系统性风险

根据贾子周期律的熵增模型，金融市场系统性风险是美元霸权崩溃的最可能触发点：

美债市场崩盘：美国国债市场是全球金融体系的基石，一旦发生崩盘，将引发连锁反应。当前美债规模已达 36.2 万亿美元，2025 年二季度将有近 1.9 万亿美元美债到期。若市场对美国偿债能力失去信心，美债收益率可能飙升至 8% 以上，引发全球金融海啸。

美元指数暴跌：2025 年美元指数已从 109 跌至 98，跌幅近 10%。若跌破 90 的关键支撑位，可能引发恐慌性抛售。历史经验表明，美元指数每下跌 10%，全球美元资产将损失数万亿美元。

银行业危机：美国银行业持有大量美债和商业地产贷款，若利率飙升或房价暴跌，可能引发银行业危机。2023 年硅谷银行的倒闭已经暴露了美国银行业的脆弱性。

衍生品市场崩溃：全球衍生品市场规模超过 600 万亿美元，其中大量以美元计价。若美元信用崩溃，衍生品市场可能出现系统性违约，引发全球金融体系崩溃。

4.1.2 地缘政治黑天鹅事件

地缘政治冲突可能成为美元霸权崩溃的直接导火索：

中美军事冲突：台海问题是最大的地缘政治风险。若中美因台海问题发生军事冲突，美国可能冻结中国持有的 1 万多亿美元美债，中国则可能抛售剩余美债并联合其他国家发起金融制裁。这将彻底摧毁美元信用体系。

核战争风险：俄乌冲突已经将核战争风险提升到冷战结束以来的最高水平。若发生核战争，全球金融体系将陷入瘫痪，美元霸权自然崩溃。

全球金融危机：2008 年金融危机的教训表明，一场始于美国的金融危机可以迅速蔓延全球。若再次发生类似 2008 年的金融危机，而美国已经失去了通过 QE 拯救市场的能力，美元霸权将无法幸免。

社会动荡与内战：美国国内政治极化严重，社会撕裂加剧。雷・达里奥警告，美国未来十年爆发内战的可能性高达 30%。若美国陷入内战，美元体系将彻底崩溃。

4.2 渐进衰退路径模型

4.2.1 经济维度的衰退

根据贾子周期律，美元霸权的经济维度衰退将呈现以下路径：

GDP 占比持续下降：美国 GDP 占全球比重的下降趋势不可逆转。从 2000 年的 31% 降至 2024 年的 25%，预计到 2030 年降至 22%，2040 年降至 20%，2050 年可能降至 15% 以下。这种相对衰落将直接削弱美元的信用基础。

贸易逆差失控：美国贸易逆差持续扩大，2024 年达到约 1 万亿美元。随着中国等新兴经济体制造业竞争力提升，美国的贸易逆差将进一步恶化。贸易逆差的扩大意味着美元外流，长期将导致美元贬值。

制造业空心化加剧：美国制造业占 GDP 比重已降至 11%，制造业就业人数从 1980 年的 1900 万降至 1200 万，下降 40%。制造业的衰落使美国失去了实体经济支撑，过度依赖金融服务业的模式不可持续。

科技创新优势丧失：中国在多个科技领域已经实现或正在实现超越。美国在基础研究方面的投入不足，STEM 教育质量下降，人才流失严重。失去科技创新优势的美国将失去对全球经济的引领能力。

4.2.2 金融维度的衰退

金融维度的衰退是美元霸权崩溃的核心路径：

美元储备份额下降：美元在全球外汇储备中的占比已从 1999 年的 71% 降至 2025 年的 56.32%。根据模型预测，这一下降趋势将加速：

2030 年：50%（跌破 50% 心理关口）

2035 年：45%

2040 年：40%

2050 年：30%

2055 年后：20% 以下

贸易结算地位下滑：美元在国际贸易结算中的份额将从目前的 47% 逐步下降：

2030 年：40%

2035 年：35%

2040 年：30%

2050 年：25%

2055 年后：20% 以下

资本外流加速：外资正在加速撤离美国。2025 年第一季度美国 FDI 流入骤降 42%。全球大型投资机构如 BlackRock、Vanguard 等正在减少美元资产配置。若资本外流持续，美国将面临严重的国际收支危机。

金融市场吸引力下降：纽约作为全球金融中心的地位正在被削弱。上海、香港、新加坡、伦敦等金融中心的重要性上升。国际金融交易越来越多地绕过美国，通过其他金融中心进行。

4.2.3 政治维度的衰退

政治维度的衰退将加速美元霸权的崩溃：

软实力衰落：美国的软实力正在 "规则破坏 - 信任流失 - 影响力衰退" 的螺旋中不断消退。美国退出各种国际组织、撕毁国际协议的行为严重损害了其国际信誉。

盟友体系瓦解：美国的盟友体系正在松动。欧洲国家对美国的依赖度下降，开始寻求战略自主。日本、韩国等亚洲盟友也在中美之间寻求平衡。没有盟友支持的美国将失去全球影响力。

国际规则制定权丧失：美国正在失去制定国际规则的主导权。在 WTO 改革、气候变化、数字经济等领域，中国等新兴经济体的话语权越来越大。美国将被迫接受由其他国家主导制定的国际规则。

国内政治极化：美国国内政治极化严重，两党对立加剧，政府效率低下。2025 年以来，美国政府多次面临停摆危机。政治不稳定严重影响了美国的国家治理能力和国际形象。

4.2.4 技术维度的颠覆

技术进步正在从根本上颠覆美元霸权的基础：

数字货币革命：央行数字货币（CBDC）的兴起正在改变国际货币体系。中国的数字人民币已经在多个国家试点，效果良好。若主要经济体都推出 CBDC 并实现互联互通，美元的中介地位将被取代。

区块链技术普及：区块链技术使点对点的价值交换成为可能，不再需要中心化的清算机构。DeFi（去中心化金融）的发展正在挑战传统金融体系。到 2030 年，DeFi 的 TVL（总锁定价值）可能突破 5 万亿美元。

人工智能赋能：AI 技术在金融领域的应用越来越广泛，包括风险评估、交易决策、合规监管等。AI 驱动的金融体系将更加高效、透明、公平，传统的以美元为中心的金融体系将被边缘化。

量子计算突破：量子计算的突破可能破解现有的加密算法，威胁到包括比特币在内的所有加密货币的安全。这可能导致全球金融体系的重新洗牌，为新的货币体系创造机会。

五、结论与展望

5.1 美元霸权宿命的必然性

基于贾子周期律论的分析，美元霸权的崩溃具有历史必然性。这一结论基于以下核心逻辑：

第一，中心化权力的内在矛盾不可调和。美元霸权本质上是美国通过垄断全球储备货币发行权，实现对全球财富的掠夺。这种 "权力→货币→财富" 的单向流动机制，必然导致财富向美国集中，加剧全球贫富分化。当这种分化达到极限时，必然引发反抗和体系崩溃。

第二，熵增定律决定了体系的必然瓦解。根据贾子周期律方程，任何封闭系统都会随着时间推移而熵增，最终走向混乱和崩溃。美元霸权体系作为一个封闭系统，其内部矛盾（如特里芬难题）随着时间推移不断积累，熵增不可避免。当前熵增已达临界值的 80% 以上，崩溃只是时间问题。

第三，历史规律不可违背。历史上没有任何一个货币霸权能够永续存在。从荷兰盾到英镑，再到美元，每个霸权货币都经历了 "崛起 - 鼎盛 - 衰落" 的生命周期。美元霸权已经存在 81 年，按照历史规律，正处于生命周期的后期。

第四，技术革命提供了替代方案。数字货币、区块链、人工智能等技术的发展，为建立新的国际货币体系提供了技术基础。这些技术能够实现价值的去中心化传递，打破任何形式的货币垄断，从根本上消解美元霸权的技术基础。

5.2 对国际货币体系的影响

美元霸权的崩溃将对国际货币体系产生深远影响：

多极化格局形成：美元独大的格局将被打破，取而代之的是多极化的货币体系。预计到 2055 年，将形成美元、欧元、人民币三极格局，辅以多种区域货币和数字货币。这种多极化格局将更加稳定、公平、高效。

金融体系重构：全球金融体系将经历根本性重构。传统的以美元为中心的清算体系将被分布式账本技术取代，金融交易将更加透明、高效、低成本。新兴金融中心将崛起，全球金融资源将重新配置。

国际规则重塑：国际货币体系的规则将被重新制定。新的规则将更加注重公平、包容、可持续发展，而不是服务于某个霸权国家的利益。发展中国家将在规则制定中拥有更大话语权。

经济格局调整：美元霸权的崩溃将加速全球经济重心东移。亚洲将成为全球经济的新中心，中国、印度等新兴经济体将发挥主导作用。全球产业链将重新布局，形成更加均衡的发展格局。

5.3 对中国的启示与建议

美元霸权的崩溃为中国带来了历史性机遇，同时也提出了挑战。基于贾子周期律论的分析，中国应采取以下战略：

第一，加快人民币国际化进程。抓住美元霸权衰落的窗口期，推进人民币在国际贸易、投资、储备等领域的使用。重点推进 "一带一路" 沿线国家的人民币使用，建立以人民币为核心的区域货币体系。

第二，发展数字货币技术。在数字人民币的基础上，加强与其他国家的数字货币合作，推动数字货币的跨境使用。参与国际数字货币标准的制定，争取在新的货币体系中占据主导地位。

第三，推动金融体系改革。建立更加开放、透明、高效的金融体系，提升上海、香港等金融中心的国际竞争力。发展绿色金融、科技金融等新业态，引领全球金融创新。

第四，深化国际合作。加强与金砖国家、上合组织等多边机制的合作，推动建立新的国际金融机构和规则体系。在气候变化、数字经济等领域发挥引领作用，提升国际影响力。

第五，防范系统性风险。在推进人民币国际化的同时，要高度重视金融风险防控。建立完善的风险预警和应对机制，避免在美元霸权崩溃过程中受到过大冲击。

美元霸权的崩溃是历史的必然，也是人类文明进步的体现。它标志着一个以霸权和掠夺为特征的旧时代的结束，一个以平等、合作、共赢为特征的新时代的开始。中国应当抓住这一历史性机遇，为构建人类命运共同体贡献力量。正如贾子周期律论所揭示的，当社会进入 "三非三共"（非垄断、非中心、非依附；共治理、共创造、共分享）的协作形态时，人类将迎来一个 "各尽所能、按需分配" 的协作文明新阶段。这不是乌托邦幻想，而是技术演进与社会发展的必然结果。

Prediction of the Fate of US Dollar Hegemony Based on the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory

Abstract

This research systematically predicts and elaborates on the historical fate of US dollar hegemony by integrating the theoretical framework of the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory and the quantitative tool of the Kucius Cycle Equation. It reveals that the essence of US dollar hegemony conforms to the core logic of the "centralized power alienation of currency" proposed by the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory, and its life cycle follows the entropy increase law of the cycle equation. The study analyzes the phased entropy increase characteristics of US dollar hegemony, predicts its short-term (2025-2035), medium-term (2035-2055), and long-term (post-2055) evolutionary trends, identifies potential trigger events for its collapse, and expounds the gradual decline path. The conclusion points out that the collapse of US dollar hegemony is an inevitable result of historical laws and technological evolution, and the GG3M framework based on the "Three Non-Principle and Three Co-Principle" will become the theoretical foundation for the new international monetary system.

1. Theoretical Alignment Between the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory and US Dollar Hegemony

1.1 Core Logic of the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory

Proposed by Kucius Teng on July 6, 2025, the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory is one of the four pillars of the Kucius Wisdom Theory System. It systematically reveals the root cause of the historical cycle from the perspective of the inherent relationship between the nature of currency and power.

The core proposition of the theory is: The essence of the historical cycle law lies in the centralized power alienation of currency. Currency, originally an "equivalent of commodity value," has alienated into a power-based distribution tool anchored on credit. Its "inherent vice" is the result of alienation after power monopolizes the right to issue currency, rather than an inherent flaw of the currency carrier itself.

The core mechanism of the theory manifests as a "power closed loop": forming a one-way cycle of "Power → Currency → Wealth". Centralized power (e.g., a state) monopolizes currency issuance, transforming currency from a unit of value measurement and medium of circulation into an instrument of wealth plunder. This leads to wealth concentration and social fragmentation, ultimately triggering the collapse of social order. Historically, this logic is reflected in the cycle of "monopoly of coinage → excessive currency issuance → inflationary plunder → peasant uprisings" and the modern pattern of "colonial monetary plunder → local economic imbalance → social unrest".

1.2 Essential Characteristics of US Dollar Hegemony

The formation of US dollar hegemony originated from the establishment of the Bretton Woods System in 1944. At the Bretton Woods Conference, 44 countries adopted the Bretton Woods Agreement based on the "White Plan", establishing a dual-pegged system where the US dollar was pegged to gold (35 US dollars per ounce of gold) and other countries' currencies were pegged to the US dollar. This system endowed the US dollar with the status of "gold equivalent", making it the bridge connecting various national currencies to gold.

On August 15, 1971, the Nixon administration announced the decoupling of the US dollar from gold, leading to the collapse of the Bretton Woods System. Subsequently, the United States established the "petrodollar system" through agreements with oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, making the US dollar the sole pricing and settlement currency for global oil trade. This transformation freed the US dollar's issuance from the constraint of gold reserves, forming a new foundation for hegemony.

The essential characteristics of US dollar hegemony are reflected in three aspects:

First, the status of the global reserve currency. The US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has gradually declined from 71% in 1999 to 57.4% in the first quarter of 2024, and further dropped to 56.32% in the second quarter of 2025, remaining below 60% for 11 consecutive quarters, a 30-year low.

Second, the monopoly of trade settlement. The US dollar still accounts for approximately 47-49% of global trade settlements, far exceeding other currencies. Particularly in the trade of bulk commodities such as oil, the US dollar has maintained a monopoly position for a long time. However, this pattern is changing: by 2025, the RMB's share in global oil trade settlement had exceeded 8%, and 50% of Saudi Arabia's oil exports to China were settled in RMB.

Third, the control of financial markets. The United States controls global financial transactions through financial infrastructure such as the SWIFT system and the Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS). Meanwhile, it leverages the scale and liquidity advantages of its huge financial market to attract global capital inflows.

1.3 Corresponding Relationship Between US Dollar Hegemony and the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory

Substituting US dollar hegemony into the Kucius Cycle Equation, each parameter has clear practical connotations:

T (Lifespan of US dollar hegemony): Since the establishment of the Bretton Woods System in 1944, US dollar hegemony has existed for 81 years (as of 2025), and according to the calculation logic of the Kucius Cycle Equation, it is in the mid-to-late stage of its life cycle.
β (Initial entropy increase rate): Corresponding to the contradictory accumulation caused by institutional flaws in the early stage of US dollar hegemony, mainly reflected in the "Triffin Dilemma"—the US dollar, as an international reserve currency, needs to export liquidity through the US trade deficit, but a long-term deficit will weaken US dollar credit. This inherent contradiction has existed since the Bretton Woods era.
γ (Entropy increase acceleration): Corresponding to the institutional rigidity coefficient of US dollar hegemony. Over time, the United States has increasingly relied on rigid means to maintain US dollar hegemony, including military deterrence, financial sanctions, and technological monopolies. The marginal effect of these means is diminishing, while triggering increasingly strong countermeasures.
λc (Critical entropy value for collapse): Adopting the historically verified value of 0.95, representing the limit of global trust in the US dollar system. Currently, with the accelerated de-dollarization process, the intensification of the US debt crisis, and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, this critical value is approaching.

US dollar hegemony perfectly embodies the cyclic logic of "centralized power → currency alienation → wealth concentration → contradiction accumulation" proposed by the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory. By monopolizing the right to issue the global reserve currency, the United States has formed a one-way closed loop of "US dollar → global commodity/resource pricing → wealth concentration in the United States", realizing the plunder of global wealth. This one-way flow mechanism of "Power → Currency → Wealth" is precisely the core driving force of the historical cycle law revealed by the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory.

2. Phased Entropy Increase Analysis of US Dollar Hegemony

2.1 Phase 1 (1944-1971): Bretton Woods System Era

The entropy increase characteristics of US dollar hegemony in this phase were slow accumulation, with the following key parameter features:

Low β value (approximately 0.12): Under the Bretton Woods System, the US dollar was pegged to gold (35 US dollars = 1 ounce of gold), and currency issuance was constrained by gold reserves, resulting in relatively few institutional flaws. After World War II, the United States held 73% of global gold reserves, providing a solid credit foundation for the US dollar.
Stable γ value (approximately 0.003): High institutional flexibility. The United States exported US dollars to Europe through means such as the Marshall Plan, which not only met the global demand for US dollars but also consolidated the US dollar's position. During this period, the US GDP accounted for over 40% of the global total, with strong economic strength and significant room for institutional adjustment.

Key entropy increase events:

The Korean War in the 1950s led to the deterioration of the US balance of payments and the outflow of gold reserves.
The first US dollar crisis broke out in 1959, shaking international confidence in the US dollar.
In 1960, Robert Triffin proposed the "Triffin Dilemma", revealing the inherent contradictions of the system.
The outbreak of the Vietnam War in 1965 led to a sharp expansion of fiscal deficits, and gold reserves plummeted from 20,000 tons to less than 9,000 tons.

A key feature of this phase was that despite structural contradictions such as the Triffin Dilemma, the entropy increase rate was relatively slow due to the United States' strong economic strength and sufficient gold reserves. However, with the increase in US overseas military spending and the deterioration of the balance of payments, contradictions gradually accumulated, ultimately leading to Nixon's announcement of the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971 and the collapse of the Bretton Woods System.

2.2 Phase 2 (1971-2008): Petrodollar Era

After the US dollar was decoupled from gold, the United States quickly established the "petrodollar system". The entropy increase characteristics of this phase were accelerated accumulation:

Rising β value (approximately 0.2): After decoupling from gold, US dollar issuance was no longer constrained by physical assets. The United States could directly obtain global resources through the printing press, resulting in a significant increase in institutional flaws. Meanwhile, although the petrodollar system solved the problem of the US dollar's credit anchor, it also brought new contradictions—the finiteness of oil resources and geopolitical risks.
Significantly rising γ value (approximately 0.008): Institutional rigidity began to emerge, and the United States increasingly relied on military force to maintain the petrodollar system. In 1975, the United States reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia, establishing the US dollar as the sole pricing and settlement currency for oil exports. Since then, the United States has maintained this system through multiple Middle East wars, military deterrence, and other means, leading to increasing path dependence.

Key entropy increase events:

The first oil crisis in 1973-1974 was resolved by the United States through diplomatic means, but it exposed the vulnerability of its dependence on oil.
The second oil crisis in 1979-1980, triggered by the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War, led to a sharp rise in oil prices and stagflation in the US economy.
The Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s: The United States shifted the crisis through high-interest rate policies, exacerbating North-South contradictions.
The Gulf War in 1990-1991: The United States directly intervened militarily to safeguard oil interests.
The Iraq War in 2003: The United States overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime under the pretext of counter-terrorism, essentially to maintain the petrodollar system.

A key turning point in this phase was China's accession to the WTO in 2001. China's manufacturing advantages complemented US financial hegemony: China accumulated US dollar foreign exchange through exports and then purchased US Treasury bonds, forming a symbiotic model of "China produces, the United States consumes". This model alleviated the US dollar's credit crisis in the short term but also laid deeper hidden dangers—accelerated deindustrialization in the United States and a persistent expansion of the trade deficit.

2.3 Phase 3 (2008-Present): Era of Accelerated De-Dollarization

The 2008 financial crisis became an important turning point for US dollar hegemony, marking the entry of entropy increase into a period of sharp acceleration:

Sharply rising β value (approximately 0.35): To cope with the financial crisis, the United States implemented quantitative easing policies. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded from 900 billion US dollars in 2008 to a peak of 8.9 trillion US dollars in 2022, nearly tenfold expansion in 14 years. This unrestrained money printing seriously overdrawn US dollar credit and accelerated the global de-dollarization process.
Rapidly rising γ value (approximately 0.02): Severe institutional rigidity. The United States has adopted increasingly extreme means to maintain US dollar hegemony. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the United States expelled Russia from the SWIFT system and froze Russia's central bank foreign exchange reserves, "weaponizing" the US dollar. Although this move maintained the US dollar's position in the short term, it completely shattered the consensus of "foreign exchange reserve security" and triggered a global panic-driven de-dollarization.

Key entropy increase events:

The 2008-2009 global financial crisis: The collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a chain reaction, and the United States shifted the crisis through quantitative easing.
The 2010-2012 European debt crisis: US rating agencies downgraded the sovereign credit of European countries, and the US dollar strengthened relatively.
The RMB joined the SDR in 2015: The IMF recognized the RMB as an international reserve currency.
The outbreak of the China-US trade war in 2018: China began to systematically reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds.
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2022: The United States implemented unlimited QE, severely damaging US dollar credit.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022: US financial sanctions triggered a global de-dollarization wave.
The expansion of BRICS in 2023: The New Development Bank launched a local currency settlement system.
Increased RMB settlement in oil trade by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other countries in 2024.

Current entropy increase level assessment:Based on the calculation logic of the Kucius Cycle Equation and combined with current indicators, the entropy increase of US dollar hegemony has reached more than 80% of the critical value:

The US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, a 30-year low.
US national debt has exceeded 36 trillion US dollars, accounting for over 125% of GDP.
Global central banks have increased their gold holdings by more than 1,000 tons for three consecutive years.
The share of local currency settlement among BRICS countries has increased from 2% to 40%.
The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) covers 189 countries, with a processing volume of 175.5 trillion yuan in 2024.

3. Short-Term, Medium-Term, and Long-Term Predictions of the Fate of US Dollar Hegemony

3.1 Short-Term Prediction (2025-2035): Trigger Events and Initial Decline

3.1.1 Key Trigger Events

Based on the dynamic analysis of the Kucius Cycle Equation and the current international situation, potential key events that may trigger the decline of US dollar hegemony during 2025-2035 include:

Outbreak of the US debt crisis: US national debt has reached 36.2 trillion US dollars, accounting for 123% of GDP. In August 2025, the United States may be unable to pay its bills due to a liquidity crunch. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that between August and September 2025, the US Treasury will face a debt ceiling default risk. At that time, the scale of public debt to be rolled over will reach 9.3 trillion US dollars, of which 2.5 trillion US dollars of debt will need to be refinanced at significantly higher interest rates. If US Treasury bond auctions fail, it may trigger a global financial market panic and the collapse of the US dollar credit system.

Loss of control of Federal Reserve monetary policy: The Federal Reserve has begun an interest rate cut cycle in 2025, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25% in September. However, the United States faces the dual pressures of inflation rebound and economic recession, putting monetary policy in a dilemma. If inflation spirals out of control or the economy experiences a hard landing, it will severely damage US dollar credit.

Geopolitical black swan events: Geopolitical flashpoints such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea may erupt in conflicts. If the United States directly intervenes militarily, it will consume substantial resources and exacerbate the fiscal crisis. Meanwhile, conflicts may lead to the disruption of global supply chains and the paralysis of the US dollar trade settlement system.

Breakthrough in RMB internationalization: RMB internationalization is accelerating. In the first half of 2025, cross-border RMB receipts and payments reached 35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and are expected to exceed 70 trillion yuan for the full year. The CIPS system covers 189 countries and regions, with a processing volume of 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, making it the world's second-largest trade finance currency. If the RMB's share in international trade settlement exceeds 20%, it will pose a substantive challenge to the US dollar.

BRICS de-dollarization alliance: BRICS countries are advancing the construction of a local currency settlement system. In October 2025, the Joint Working Group of BRICS Central Banks submitted the "BRICS Reserve Digital Gold Proposal", proposing the establishment of a digital currency supported by physical gold reserves. If BRICS countries achieve full coverage of local currency settlement, it will directly challenge the US dollar's monopoly position in international trade.

3.1.2 Manifestations of Initial Decline

Based on the entropy increase model of the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory, the initial decline of US dollar hegemony during 2025-2035 will present the following characteristics:

Accelerated decline in the US dollar's reserve share: According to historical trends and the current speed of de-dollarization, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves is expected to drop from the current 56.32% to around 52% by 2035, with an average annual decline of approximately 0.5 percentage points—twice the decline rate of the previous decade.

Eroded trade settlement status: The US dollar's share in global trade settlement will drop from the current 47% to around 40%. The RMB's settlement share will rise from the current 5% to 15-20%, while the euro will remain around 30%, forming a tripartite pattern of "US dollar - euro - RMB".

Diminished attractiveness of financial markets: Foreign interest in US assets has significantly decreased, with US FDI inflows plummeting by 42% in the first quarter of 2025. Large global investment institutions are reducing their allocations to US assets and shifting capital to Europe and emerging markets.

Sustained weakness of the US dollar index: The US dollar index has fallen by nearly 10% since 2025, from 109 to around 98. If the US debt crisis breaks out, the US dollar index may fall below 90, triggering a global sell-off.

3.2 Medium-Term Prediction (2035-2055): Gradual Decline Process

3.2.1 Formation of a Multipolar Monetary System

During 2035-2055, the international monetary system will evolve from US dollar dominance to multipolarity, a process consistent with the logic of "entropy increase accumulation → system restructuring" in the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory:

Establishment of a tripartite monetary system: By 2055, the international monetary system is expected to form a tripartite pattern of "US dollar, euro, and RMB", with their respective shares in global foreign exchange reserves being 35%, 21%, and 19%. Although the US dollar will remain the top reserve currency, its dominant advantage will be significantly weakened.

Emergence of regional currency unions: Beyond the tripartite pattern, multiple regional currency unions will emerge:

ASEAN countries may form a regional currency system dominated by the RMB.
African countries may launch a unified African currency.
Latin American countries may establish a Mercosur currency centered on the Brazilian real and Mexican peso.
The Middle East region may form an Islamic currency system anchored on oil.

Rise of digital currencies: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will become an important component of the international monetary system. The Bank for International Settlements predicts that by 2030, 30% of cross-border payments will be completed through digital currencies. By 2060, 90% of central banks will have launched legal digital currencies, and the SWIFT system will be replaced by distributed ledger technology.

3.2.2 Relative Decline of US Strength

According to the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory, the decline of currency hegemony is closely related to the relative decline of a country's comprehensive strength:

Falling share of global GDP: The US share of global GDP has dropped from 31% in 2000 to 25% in 2024, and is expected to decline to 20% by 2040. In terms of purchasing power parity, the US share has fallen from 26.12% in 1990 to 15.56% in 2023, and is projected to further drop to 14.72% by 2029.

Accelerated deindustrialization: The US manufacturing sector accounts for only around 11% of GDP, far lower than China's 28%. The United States accounts for only 10% of global semiconductor production and has a semiconductor equipment localization rate of less than 15%. The decline of manufacturing has weakened the real economic foundation of the United States.

Narrowing technological innovation advantages: China has achieved or is achieving breakthroughs in fields such as 5G, high-speed rail, new energy, and artificial intelligence. The United States' advantages in STEM education are eroding, and its students' math scores are declining in international assessments.

Excessive cost of military hegemony: US military spending accounts for 3.5% of GDP, with enormous maintenance costs for global military bases. As the military strength of China, Russia, and other countries improves, the cost of maintaining US global military hegemony is increasing while the benefits are decreasing.

3.3 Long-Term Prediction (Post-2055): Establishment of a New Order

3.3.1 Complete Collapse of US Dollar Hegemony

According to the ultimate logic of the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory, US dollar hegemony will collapse completely after 2055, with the following characteristics:

Comprehensive collapse of the credit system: With the repeated outbreak of the US debt crisis, runaway inflation, and economic recession, the credit foundation of the US dollar will be completely shattered. Central banks around the world will sell US dollar assets on a large scale, and the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves may drop below 20%.

Restructuring of the trade settlement system: The US dollar will lose its dominant position in international trade, replaced by a variety of currencies and digital currencies. Bulk commodity transactions will adopt diversified pricing and settlement systems, no longer relying on the US dollar.

Marginalization of financial markets: New York's status as the global financial center will be replaced by cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore. The liquidity advantage of US financial markets will disappear, and international capital will flow to emerging markets.

Reshaping of the geopolitical pattern: The collapse of US dollar hegemony will lead to a sharp decline in US global influence, the end of the unipolar world pattern, and the irreversible trend of multipolarity. The United States will be forced to shrink its global strategy and focus on domestic development.

3.3.2 Birth of a New Value System

The GG3M framework based on the "Three Non-Principle and Three Co-Principle" proposed by the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory will become the theoretical foundation of the new value system:

Realization of the "Three Non-Principle":

Non-Centrality: The right to issue currency will no longer be monopolized by a single country but will be realized through a distributed network.
Non-Monopoly: Breaking any form of currency monopoly and allowing the coexistence and competition of multiple currencies.
Non-Violence: Maintaining currency order through market mechanisms rather than military means.

Implementation of the "Three Co-Principle":

Co-Creation: Value creation returns to the essence of labor, and distribution according to work is realized through smart contracts.
Co-Sharing: Decentralized resource allocation is achieved through blockchain technology to ensure fair distribution.
Co-Governance: Establishing a global currency governance system where all participants jointly formulate rules.

Technology-driven value internet:

Blockchain technology will fundamentally change the way value is transferred, enabling peer-to-peer value exchange.
Artificial intelligence will be used for value assessment and resource allocation, improving efficiency and fairness.
Internet of Things (IoT) technology will realize the interconnection of value between the physical and digital worlds.
Quantum computing will provide more secure technical guarantees for cryptocurrencies.

Characteristics of the new international monetary system:

Multipolarity: The coexistence of sovereign currencies such as the US dollar, euro, and RMB with digital currencies.
Decentralization: No single central currency, with various currencies freely circulating according to market demand.
Intelligence: The issuance, circulation, and supervision of currency are automatically executed by smart contracts.
Inclusiveness: Everyone can equally participate in value creation and distribution.

4. Trigger Mechanisms and Gradual Path of the Collapse of US Dollar Hegemony

4.1 Analysis of Collapse Trigger Mechanisms

4.1.1 Systemic Risks in Financial Markets

According to the entropy increase model of the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory, systemic risks in financial markets are the most likely trigger for the collapse of US dollar hegemony:

Crash of the US Treasury bond market: The US Treasury bond market is the cornerstone of the global financial system. A crash would trigger a chain reaction. Currently, US national debt has reached 36.2 trillion US dollars, with nearly 1.9 trillion US dollars of US Treasury bonds maturing in the second quarter of 2025. If the market loses confidence in the US's ability to repay its debts, US Treasury bond yields may soar above 8%, triggering a global financial tsunami.

Plunge of the US dollar index: The US dollar index has fallen by nearly 10% in 2025, from 109 to 98. A break below the key support level of 90 may trigger a panic sell-off. Historical experience shows that every 10% drop in the US dollar index leads to a loss of trillions of US dollars in global US dollar assets.

Banking crisis: US banks hold a large amount of US Treasury bonds and commercial real estate loans. A surge in interest rates or a sharp drop in housing prices may trigger a banking crisis. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 has already exposed the vulnerability of the US banking sector.

Collapse of the derivatives market: The global derivatives market exceeds 600 trillion US dollars, with a large portion denominated in US dollars. If US dollar credit collapses, the derivatives market may experience systemic defaults, leading to the collapse of the global financial system.

4.1.2 Geopolitical Black Swan Events

Geopolitical conflicts may become the direct trigger for the collapse of US dollar hegemony:

China-US military conflict: The Taiwan Strait issue is the biggest geopolitical risk. If a military conflict breaks out between China and the United States over the Taiwan Strait, the United States may freeze China's holdings of more than 1 trillion US dollars of US Treasury bonds, while China may sell its remaining US Treasury bonds and launch financial sanctions in conjunction with other countries. This will completely destroy the US dollar credit system.

Risk of nuclear war: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has raised the risk of nuclear war to its highest level since the end of the Cold War. A nuclear war would paralyze the global financial system, and US dollar hegemony would naturally collapse.

Global financial crisis: The 2008 financial crisis demonstrated that a financial crisis originating in the United States can quickly spread globally. If another financial crisis similar to 2008 occurs and the United States has lost the ability to save the market through QE, US dollar hegemony will not survive.

Social unrest and civil war: Domestic political polarization in the United States is severe, and social division is deepening. Ray Dalio warns that the probability of a civil war in the United States within the next decade is as high as 30%. If the United States descends into civil war, the US dollar system will collapse completely.

4.2 Gradual Decline Path Model

4.2.1 Economic Dimension Decline

According to the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory, the economic decline of US dollar hegemony will follow the following path:

Sustained decline in GDP share: The downward trend of the US's share of global GDP is irreversible. From 31% in 2000 to 25% in 2024, it is expected to drop to 22% by 2030, 20% by 2040, and below 15% by 2050. This relative decline will directly weaken the credit foundation of the US dollar.

Uncontrolled trade deficit: The US trade deficit continues to expand, reaching approximately 1 trillion US dollars in 2024. With the improvement of manufacturing competitiveness in China and other emerging economies, the US trade deficit will further deteriorate. An expanding trade deficit means US dollar outflows, which will lead to US dollar depreciation in the long run.

Accelerated deindustrialization: The US manufacturing sector accounts for only 11% of GDP, and manufacturing employment has dropped by 40%, from 19 million in 1980 to 12 million. The decline of manufacturing has left the United States without a solid real economic foundation, and its over-reliance on the financial service industry is unsustainable.

Loss of technological innovation advantages: China has achieved or is achieving breakthroughs in multiple technological fields. The United States has insufficient investment in basic research, declining STEM education quality, and serious brain drain. A United States that loses its technological innovation advantages will lose its ability to lead the global economy.

4.2.2 Financial Dimension Decline

The financial dimension decline is the core path of the collapse of US dollar hegemony:

Decline in the US dollar's reserve share: The US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 71% in 1999 to 56.32% in 2025. According to model predictions, this downward trend will accelerate:

2030: 50% (breaking the psychological threshold of 50%)
2035: 45%
2040: 40%
2050: 30%
Post-2055: Below 20%

Decline in trade settlement status: The US dollar's share in international trade settlement will gradually decline from the current 47%:

2030: 40%
2035: 35%
2040: 30%
2050: 25%
Post-2055: Below 20%

Accelerated capital outflows: Foreign capital is accelerating its withdrawal from the United States. US FDI inflows plummeted by 42% in the first quarter of 2025. Large global investment institutions such as BlackRock and Vanguard are reducing their allocations to US dollar assets. Sustained capital outflows will lead to a severe balance of payments crisis in the United States.

Diminished attractiveness of financial markets: New York's status as a global financial center is being eroded. The importance of financial centers such as Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, and London is rising. An increasing number of international financial transactions are bypassing the United States and being conducted through other financial centers.

4.2.3 Political Dimension Decline

The political dimension decline will accelerate the collapse of US dollar hegemony:

Decline in soft power: US soft power is continuously fading in a spiral of "rule-breaking → trust loss → influence decline". The United States' withdrawal from various international organizations and abrogation of international agreements have severely damaged its international reputation.

Collapse of the alliance system: The US alliance system is loosening. European countries are less dependent on the United States and are seeking strategic autonomy. Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea are also seeking a balance between China and the United States. A United States without ally support will lose its global influence.

Loss of international rule-making power: The United States is losing its dominant position in formulating international rules. Emerging economies such as China have increasing say in fields such as WTO reform, climate change, and the digital economy. The United States will be forced to accept international rules formulated by other countries.

Domestic political polarization: Domestic political polarization in the United States is severe, with intensified partisan confrontation and low government efficiency. Since 2025, the US government has faced multiple shutdown crises. Political instability has seriously affected the US's national governance capacity and international image.

4.2.4 Technological Dimension Subversion

Technological progress is fundamentally subverting the foundation of US dollar hegemony:

Digital currency revolution: The rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) is changing the international monetary system. China's digital RMB has been piloted in multiple countries with good results. If major economies launch CBDCs and realize interconnection, the US dollar's intermediary position will be replaced.

Popularization of blockchain technology: Blockchain technology enables peer-to-peer value exchange without the need for centralized clearing institutions. The development of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is challenging the traditional financial system. By 2030, the Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi may exceed 5 trillion US dollars.

AI empowerment: The application of AI technology in the financial sector is becoming increasingly widespread, including risk assessment, transaction decision-making, and compliance supervision. An AI-driven financial system will be more efficient, transparent, and fair, and the traditional US dollar-centered financial system will be marginalized.

Quantum computing breakthroughs: Quantum computing breakthroughs may crack existing encryption algorithms, threatening the security of all cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin. This may lead to a reshuffle of the global financial system, creating opportunities for a new monetary system.

5. Conclusions and Prospects

5.1 Inevitability of the Fate of US Dollar Hegemony

Based on the analysis of the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory, the collapse of US dollar hegemony is historically inevitable. This conclusion is based on the following core logic:

First, the inherent contradictions of centralized power are irreconcilable. US dollar hegemony essentially involves the United States plundering global wealth by monopolizing the right to issue the global reserve currency. This one-way flow mechanism of "Power → Currency → Wealth" inevitably leads to wealth concentration in the United States and exacerbates global wealth inequality. When this inequality reaches its limit, it will inevitably trigger resistance and system collapse.

Second, the second law of thermodynamics determines the inevitable disintegration of the system. According to the Kucius Cycle Equation, any closed system will experience entropy increase over time, eventually leading to chaos and collapse. As a closed system, the US dollar hegemony system's internal contradictions (such as the Triffin Dilemma) accumulate over time, making entropy increase inevitable. Currently, entropy increase has reached more than 80% of the critical value, and collapse is only a matter of time.

Third, historical laws cannot be violated. No currency hegemony in history has been able to exist permanently. From the Dutch guilder to the British pound, and then to the US dollar, each hegemonic currency has experienced a life cycle of "rise → heyday → decline". US dollar hegemony has existed for 81 years and, according to historical laws, is in the late stage of its life cycle.

Fourth, technological revolution provides alternative solutions. The development of technologies such as digital currencies, blockchain, and artificial intelligence has laid the technical foundation for establishing a new international monetary system. These technologies can realize the decentralized transmission of value, break any form of currency monopoly, and fundamentally eliminate the technical foundation of US dollar hegemony.

5.2 Impact on the International Monetary System

The collapse of US dollar hegemony will have a profound impact on the international monetary system:

Formation of a multipolar pattern: The pattern of US dollar dominance will be broken, replaced by a multipolar monetary system. By 2055, a tripartite pattern of the US dollar, euro, and RMB is expected to form, supplemented by various regional currencies and digital currencies. This multipolar pattern will be more stable, fair, and efficient.

Restructuring of the financial system: The global financial system will undergo a fundamental restructuring. The traditional US dollar-centered clearing system will be replaced by distributed ledger technology, making financial transactions more transparent, efficient, and low-cost. Emerging financial centers will rise, and global financial resources will be reallocated.

Reshaping of international rules: The rules of the international monetary system will be redefined. The new rules will focus more on fairness, inclusiveness, and sustainable development, rather than serving the interests of a single hegemonic country. Developing countries will have greater say in rule-making.

Adjustment of the economic pattern: The collapse of US dollar hegemony will accelerate the eastward shift of the global economic center of gravity. Asia will become the new center of the global economy, with emerging economies such as China and India playing a leading role. The global industrial chain will be reorganized to form a more balanced development pattern.

5.3 Implications and Recommendations for China

The collapse of US dollar hegemony brings historic opportunities for China, but also poses challenges. Based on the analysis of the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory, China should adopt the following strategies:

First, accelerate the process of RMB internationalization. Seize the window period of US dollar hegemony's decline to promote the use of the RMB in international trade, investment, and reserves. Focus on promoting the use of the RMB among countries along the "Belt and Road" and establish a regional currency system centered on the RMB.

Second, develop digital currency technology. On the basis of the digital RMB, strengthen cooperation with other countries in digital currencies and promote the cross-border use of digital currencies. Participate in the formulation of international digital currency standards and strive to occupy a leading position in the new monetary system.

Third, promote financial system reform. Establish a more open, transparent, and efficient financial system to enhance the international competitiveness of financial centers such as Shanghai and Hong Kong. Develop new formats such as green finance and technology finance to lead global financial innovation.

Fourth, deepen international cooperation. Strengthen cooperation with multilateral mechanisms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to promote the establishment of new international financial institutions and rule systems. Play a leading role in fields such as climate change and the digital economy to enhance international influence.

Fifth, guard against systemic risks. While advancing RMB internationalization, attach great importance to financial risk prevention and control. Establish a sound risk early warning and response mechanism to avoid excessive impacts during the collapse of US dollar hegemony.

The collapse of US dollar hegemony is an inevitable historical trend and a manifestation of the progress of human civilization. It marks the end of an old era characterized by hegemony and plunder, and the beginning of a new era characterized by equality, cooperation, and mutual benefit. China should seize this historic opportunity to contribute to building a community with a shared future for mankind. As revealed by the Kucius Historical Cycle Theory, when society enters a collaborative form of the "Three Non-Principle and Three Co-Principle" (Non-Monopoly, Non-Centrality, Non-Dependence; Co-Governance, Co-Creation, Co-Sharing), humanity will usher in a new stage of collaborative civilization featuring "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs". This is not a utopian fantasy, but an inevitable result of technological evolution and social development.

Author: Kucius TengPublication Date: November 26, 2025Theoretical Foundation: Kucius Wisdom Theory System & GG3M FrameworkKeywords: Kucius Historical Cycle Theory; US Dollar Hegemony; Entropy Increase Dynamics; De-Dollarization; GG3M; Three Non-Principle and Three Co-Principle