https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728zh-cnhttps://blog.youkuaiyun.com/https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156718843https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156718843Salt_0728Thu, 08 Jan 2026 18:00:00 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156694150https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156694150Salt_0728Thu, 08 Jan 2026 12:00:48 +0800z每个参数的 “有效性得分”（类似考试分数）<0.05：参数有用；>0.05：参数没用，要调整sigma2模型的 “误差方差”（类似做题的错题数）越小越好对数似然值（类似总分）越大越好AIC/BIC信息准则（类似综合评分）越小越好残差检验（看模型有没有学完所有规律）p 值 > 0.05：残差是白噪声（模型学透了）时序建模流程。]]>https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156693629https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156693629Salt_0728Wed, 07 Jan 2026 18:52:02 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156612011https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156612011Salt_0728Mon, 05 Jan 2026 23:00:00 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156611513https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156611513Salt_0728Mon, 05 Jan 2026 18:15:22 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156575287https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156575287Salt_0728Sun, 04 Jan 2026 20:40:13 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156542091https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156542091Salt_0728Sat, 03 Jan 2026 19:03:10 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156511452https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156511452Salt_0728Sat, 03 Jan 2026 17:38:17 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156463611https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156463611Salt_0728Fri, 02 Jan 2026 12:38:14 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156452728https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156452728Salt_0728Wed, 31 Dec 2025 18:12:50 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156394948https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156394948Salt_0728Tue, 30 Dec 2025 14:01:32 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156392314https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156392314Salt_0728Mon, 29 Dec 2025 18:23:45 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156364670https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156364670Salt_0728Mon, 29 Dec 2025 12:05:33 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156312207https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156312207Salt_0728Fri, 26 Dec 2025 23:23:40 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156267831https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156267831Salt_0728Thu, 25 Dec 2025 18:50:30 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156238799https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156238799Salt_0728Thu, 25 Dec 2025 12:32:10 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156237784https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156237784Salt_0728Wed, 24 Dec 2025 17:41:28 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156203708https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156203708Salt_0728Wed, 24 Dec 2025 10:00:28 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156202460https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156202460Salt_0728Tue, 23 Dec 2025 21:10:28 +0800https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156163406https://blog.youkuaiyun.com/Salt_0728/article/details/156163406Salt_0728Tue, 23 Dec 2025 18:29:33 +0800