Aprial 18th Wednesday (四月 十八日 水曜日)

本文探讨了通过蚁群模型来解释社会经济系统的复杂性。该模型通过观察蚂蚁群体的行为揭示了宏观经济现象难以预测的原因。文章还对比了传统经济学理论,并提出了一种新的视角来看待经济波动。

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  Today's air temperature will be more high than yesterday.  These fluctuating temperature showed again and
again from the end of last year to this spring.  After keeping so low temperature suddenly the air temperature
rise up,  I don't know what the past of Wuxi temperature.  But this fluctuating temerature will kill many people.

  These days I am reading "Butterfly Economics".  It is a key that there is a economical model called as ant group
model.  The economists who support this model consider social economy as a animal but not a machine.  Those traditional
economists is called mechanist by them.  The ant group theory is so simple and so power to explain why it is
impossible to foretell the short future of a social economy.

  Let's look at this interesting economical model firstly.  There are two heaps food.  They can be added for keeping
the same quantification, at the same time the distance from that two heap food to a ant hole both are same.  Scientist
observe the ant gourp's behaviour.  From statistic data scientist found some interesting phenomena.  Sometime almost
all ants get food from A heap food, sometimes all go to B heap food, sometime the quantification at A and B are almost
equal.  However, there are not a period can be found.  Every ant can make one of three choices before leaving the ant
hole.  One, it can go on its habit and come back the last heap food; or it can give up its habit temporary and make up
one's mind to try exploring another new food resource; more than, it also can follow its friend's proposal and go to
another heap food.  If there are also stars in the ant group, I think when it speak for a heap food many a ant will go
to that.  So, this kind of star ant is just a high order.  They can cause the behavior of many other ants.  When
individual's cause arrive at a degree, the whole macroscopic result will be implemented.  Here, it just is a classic
example.  As matter of a fact, individual can adopt various ways to cause the whole as it can not be aware that.

  The whole situation also can result in the behavior of individual.  When most of ants usually prey at B heap food,
it is so possible that a ant who usually go to A heap food give up its habit and follow the most.  We can know what
each ant want at any time. The tendency of the whole ant group is based on the total result of ants's mind.  So, at
any point there are any phenomenon to presage future, especial a short prospect.

  This ant group model is a miniature of our social economy.  Our university is chaotic.  So, Marx's economics and
historics can not explain our world well.  In a way, it is wrong at all.  Marx is also a traditional economist. 
However he had little innovate ideal at economics and philosophy except for binding them with its polictics.


  I remember first generation gods have natural forece and second generation gods represent sequent force in Greek
mythology.  I like Greek myth because our ancient ancestors express their philosophy and world viewpoint by using
a interesting and unsullen way. 

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