Hype Cycle

   Hype Cycle是对技术的成熟度，大众接受度和商业应用程度的一个图形化表示。Gartner.com从95年开始每年对相关技术发表相应的Hype Cycle，对当年的各种技术进行评估。通过Hype Cycle，我们可以估计某个技术什么时候会走出所谓“盲目的狂热期”，最终走向成熟，为大众所接受。横坐标表示技术的成熟度，纵轴表示技术受关注的程度.影响最大的Hype Cycle无疑是99年由Alex Drobik 提出的E-Business-Hype Cycle ，因为它准确地预测到了2000年春天dot-com 泡沫的破灭。

 1. "Technology Trigger"
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. "Plateau of Productivity"
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. 

可以看看2005年Gartner发布的Hype Cycle。